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1. Treasury Market Slightly Lower
By Tom Graff
8:20 a.m. EDT
Treasuries are slightly lower ahead of the consumer price index report today. On the basis of the very strong equity market and poor technicals, I'd guess that unless CPI is a big miss to the downside, Treasuries will sell off today.
We are basically at a significant resistance level at 3.50%. The next level is a pretty soft resistance at 3.67%. I really don't see any hard resistance until the 3.90s. So it could get ugly. I'm currently at my lowest Treasury allocation all year.
Meanwhile, it looks like
will get some sort of regulatory forbearance, allowing funds to flow to their Utah Bank. An exchange with bondholders looks extremely likely to me, and that is probably the easiest way for CIT to free up regulatory capital. With bonds recently trading in the $70 area, if they can be retired for $80, that could raise substantial capital. I'd guess that a large percentage of current CIT bondholders are recent purchasers who never envisioned par anyway.
2. Fast-Food Stocks Looking Tasty
By Alan Farley
8:35 a.m. EDT
The fast-food and restaurant groups didn't get much help from
last night. That stock, purveyor of the Taco Bell, KFC and Pizza Hut chains, is currently trading down nearly $1.50 after earnings. However, many sector stocks are showing signs of life after a three-month consolidation period and could head into a string of breakouts in the next two to four weeks.
, best known for its Applebee's and IHOP brands, is an interesting play in the group. It rocketed off a multiyear low in March and jumped up to $36 in late April. It then dropped into a well-structured symmetrical triangle that's still in place.
Price is hugging the upper end of this pattern, and that is often a precursor to a healthy breakout. The company reports earnings on July 28.
Long WEN in long-term account.
3. Morning Trade
By Bob Byrne
9:20 a.m. EDT
The bulls did what they needed to: They held on to Monday's gains. With the emini trading higher by more than 10 handles, the question now is, can we hold the gap and make a run back toward 925?
Traders are waking up to a very strong open, and if the bulls can keep the emini above the strong support zone at 908.50/909.50, they have an open door to target 925. The emini runs into moderate resistance at 913 and 915, but if the bears can't fade the open in a hurry, a run to strong resistance at 919 is not out of the question. The next big potential stumbling block for the bulls begins with moderate resistance at 923 and ends with strong resistance at 925.50.
The bears have one not-so-simple task: fade (sell) the open and fill the gap. The initial target is the support zone at 908.50/909.50. A sustained trade back under this area sets up a quick fall to (and through) weak support at 905 and back to moderate support at 901.
4. Semis Break out
By Gary Morrow
12:09 p.m. EDT
leading the way, the semiconductor stocks are breaking out.
are up just shy of 5% after beginning the day with a powerful gap higher open that lifted it to new yearly highs. Volume is running very heavy as well, already printing over half the daily average. Today's breakout, which began to take shape during Monday's volume surge, has left behind heavy resistance just above $22.00.
Three of the weekly highs since June 1 have fallen between $22.10 and $22.30. I expect this area to provide strong support if tested. A low-volume pullback to this support zone will provide a very low-risk buying opportunity. A logical short-term upside target for the ETF is $24.00. A rally up to here would re-trace 50% of last year's range. I am currently long the SMH and will add on weakness. As $24.00 nears, I will be letting go of 75% of the position.
5. Credit Charge-Off News Aids Companies
By Sham Gad
12:58 p.m. EDT
Capital One Financial
that they reported lower-than-expected defaults and delinquencies in June is sending shares of the entire industry surging. The plausible arguments are that the increased savings rate is enabling consumers to pay off credit card bills and that many companies have already charged off the weaker portion of the consumer base.
These reasons make a lot of sense, but I would offer investors some sound advice: Buyer beware. Until we can see a firm stabilization in unemployment and housing, no one is out of the woods. Having said that, I am encouraged by the direction the economy is going.
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This article was written by a staff member of RealMoney.com.