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Allstate

By Mark Haefele
06/26/09 9:22 a.m.

FBR is raising its target price on

Allstate

(ALL) - Get Report

because it sees improvement in the company's fixed-income investments and, by extension, its book value.

Positions: Long ALL

Income and Spending

By Tom Graff
06/26/09 8:52 a.m.

I'm surprised the bond market is reacting as well as it is. The 10-year has rallied about 1/8 point since the release. The last several income and spending reports have shown

declining

spending, even in the face of mildly rising income. That's obviously noninflationary. This release shows some increase in spending, tepid though it may be. That at least

potentially

inflationary. Given how far the Treasury market has run the last several days, you'd think the market is looking for a profit-taking excuse. If we can hold below 3.55% on 10's, I'd say that's pretty bullish for next week.

Positions: Still long long bonds

Morning Trade

By Bob Byrne
06/26/09 9:27 a.m.

Yesterday's rally began with the bulls defending the 891.50 support area and then ripping the heads off the bears. At 891.50, we were not that far from 882.50 ... our first of two major support zones. In late-afternoon trading we ran as high 917.75, and 924 will likely prove to be a large speed bump for the bulls.

If you are trading this bipolar market, do not let your favorite financial soap opera set your mood. As the emini makes 20- or 30-handle moves, remain skeptical. Do not get too bullish at tops (a 25-handle pop) or bearish at bottoms (a 25-handle drop).

The bulls were able to rally their troops in a big way off the 891.50 support area, but if they want to continue their drive they need to keep the emini above strong support at 912.25 and target moderate resistance levels at 917.25 and 919. A sustained trade above 919 keeps the bullish momentum alive with strong resistance at 924 on tap.

The bears, after removing the tire tread from their backs, need to push the emini back under strong support at 912.25 and target moderate support at 910.25 and weak support at 908. Any early selling should find strong support near 905.50, but if the bulls are unwilling to defend this area they risk being sent back to (and through) 901.25 ... landing back at strong support at 896.50.

GE?

By Robert Marcin
06/26/09 10:27 a.m.

Immelt says GE Capital worth a buck or two? Wow, what a come-down for

General Electric

(GE) - Get Report

. And what a mistake to pay anything other than a lowly financial multiple for GE Capital as investors did for a decade. I never understood the valuation of GE when half of EPS was financial services.

Positions: None

Sell Urban

By Tim Melvin
06/26/09 12:42 p.m.

Let me start by saying that I think

Urban Outfitters

(URBN) - Get Report

is one of the best-run retailers I have ever seen in my life. In the fickle teen/young adult markets, it has impressed me with its ability to stay on top of trends and manage inventory. With that out of the way, sell the stock. Now. Right now.

CEO Glenn Senk just sold 45% of his stock in the company. That is not estate-planning, paying-for-a-child's-education of giving-a-cherished-daughter-the-wedding-of-her-dreams selling. That is this-stock-is-not-going-to-go-any-higher-because-retail-is-horrible-right-now selling. Love the company. Hate the industry and the stock right now. If the CEO is bearish, I would be a fool to be a buyer.

Positions: None yet

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This article was written by a staff member of RealMoney.com.