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Mosaic: Big Rock, Hard Place
By Alan Farley
06/02/09 8:06 a.m.
has caught fire in the last three weeks, breaking out above six-month base resistance at $46 and rallying above the 200-day EMA on May 18. It hit $59.35 a few days later and dropped into a sideways pattern. This is typical price action at the 200-day, indicating a test of that could last four to six weeks.
The stock has a bigger problem, though. The rally has pushed into the huge gap between 52 and 67, posted back in October. This is no man's land, where selling pressure can emerge at any time. Even worse, a rally into the top of the gap will issue a common short selling signal that will attract even greater downward pressure.
I'd like to say there were better sector choices, but
, my favorite in the group, has rallied into a similar gap. Meanwhile,
Market Vector Agribusiness ETF
is hitting a zone of tough resistance between $38 and $41.
All in all, there's just one conclusion here: take profits in the sector and move back to the sidelines.
By Ken Wolff
06/02/09 8:46 a.m.
is trading down this morning after a very nice day of trading. My targets were hit yesterday as the market gave us a strong indication, moving down 20 cents to $35.60 then up to my top target of $36.50. I would not expect profit-taking, so I am attributing this gap down as nervousness...
In that case, we can move down today, but its not really predictable. I am going to expect some buying off $36 with a potential move up to $36.40, where I will be looking for shorts. That would be what would occur if we are going to see a nervous market today...
By Bob Byrne
06/02/09 9:19 a.m.
I have received a number of emails all wanting to know what slows this current advance -- and if I had to guess, I would put my chips on the energy/commodity trade. When we see the energy stocks weaken, we will likely see the broad market do the same (or at least slow down). A convenient time for a commodity reversal would be the inventory numbers released after the market today by the API and the DOE's version tomorrow morning.
The financials have the ability to cause the market to hiccup and stall, but technology and energy have been to drivers of late ... just look at the performance of the
Financial Select Sector SPDR
SPDR KBW Regional Banking
Energy Select SPDR
Oil Services HOLDRs
The bulls will need to defend moderate support at 937.25 and strong support at 935 if they want to make another advance towards the 950 area. The 942.75 area will be the first level of strong resistance the bulls must conquer. A sustained trade above here finds only moderate resistance at 945.50 before tackling strong resistance at 950/951.
The bears first target must be strong support at 935 ... a sustained trade under this area sets up the potential for a quick drop back to moderate support at 930 and strong support at 927. A failure by the bulls to hold the 927 area give the bears an opening to take us back to moderate support at 922.50 and strong support at 918.
By Jim Cramer
06/02/09 9:58 a.m.
keeps going higher, and I reiterate that it will not peak until June 8-9, developers/China launch. ...
, great quarter.
seemingly in orbit;
Research In Motion
so strong. I will keep these in front of you no matter what...
By Tim Melvin
06/02/09 11:39 a.m.
The prices of both
have both slipped below the price level of this morning's offering. Both had already been priced at a discount to last nights close.
I have been curious just who was buying all these financial services offerings in the first place, much less supporting them. Morgan and Amex are both leaders in their group, but given the prospects for their industries, they appear to be trading at rather high multiples of uncertain earnings.
Buying financials implies that you think that people will be buying stocks and bonds, taking out loans and actually paying their credit cards. I think the reverse is true. Nobody, starting with the early investor sovereign wealth funds, has profited form these bank offerings. I suspect this go-round will not be different.
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This article was written by a staff member of RealMoney.com.