Top Takes From RealMoney
The RealMoney contributors are in the business of trading and investing all day on the basis of ongoing news flow. Below, we offer the top five ideas that RealMoney contributors posted today and how they played those ideas.
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1. Korean News Provides Handy Excuse
By Marc Chandler
8:30 a.m. EDT
North Korea's nuclear device test prompted a quick knee-jerk selloff in Korean markets yesterday, including the Korean won, but they bounced back. Today's missile test seemed to have a greater impact, but it will likely prove to be noise and not the true signal.
In the forex market, dollar bears seemed to be in the driver's seat, but the lack of follow-through yesterday, in thin trading, prompted the late longs -- and given the dominance of the momentum strategies, these were extensive -- to exit.
However, in North America today, look for the dollar to slip lower. North Korea or not.
2. First Solar: Under the Gun
By Alan Farley
8:36 a.m. EDT
First Solar
(FSLR) - Get Report
is getting put to the test this morning, after a FBR Capital downgrade and a bearish
Barron's
column. The stock gapped above a six-month basing pattern on heavy volume in April and jumped above the 200-day EMA. The rally stalled at "round number" 200 on May 7, pulled back and tested the level last Wednesday.
Sellers then took control once again, with the stock dropping to $191 ahead of the long weekend. It's currently trading at $182 in the pre-market. This isn't terrible, because the level marks the 20-day SMA. Right now, the pattern looks like the early stages of a triangle, with support under $180. That's where I'll be watching for a bounce later this week.
Annotated chart
here
.
No positions.
3. Oversold Rally
By Helene Meisler
10:45 a.m. EDT
I've been asked how far I think the oversold rally can take us. I would think that unless we flirt with something well over 900 (930?) we won't remove that short term gloom we found last Thursday (see my column on the
).
However, I think the better question is, "When will we be overbought again?" and that's easier: sometime between Friday of this week and Tuesday of next week. I believe the deadline for the
General Motors
(GM) - Get Report
bankruptcy is early next week which makes the timing even more curious.
No positions.
4. Apple: Play the Product Upgrade?
By Jeff Bagley
1:59 p.m. EDT
You just got to love Morgan Stanley's upgrade of
Apple
(AAPL) - Get Report
. It's exquisitely timed: The stock pulled back nicely, giving folks an opportunity to commit capital in front of a major product upgrade.
The talk is that the new iPhone will be announced in early June, with a launch shortly after.
AT&T
(T) - Get Report
is now out of stock on the refurbished 16 GB iPhone after offering them at $149, which is half-price.
I understand how difficult it is to buy a stock up $8, so I would be a bit patient and wait for a pullback. I wouldn't wait too long, however, because in the past Apple has tended to run ahead of product introductions.
Valuation isn't all that problematic, either. After stripping out the cash, the stock trades at a free cash flow yield of about 7%-8%, depending on your estimates.
Long AAPL, T
5. Best Buy Holds Support
By Gary Morrow
12:34 p.m. EDT
The stronger
has sparked a powerful rally in retail.
Wal-Mart
(WMT) - Get Report
is up 2.5%,
Costco
(COST) - Get Report
is up 2.3%, and
Home Depot
(HD) - Get Report
is trading back above its 200-day moving average, with the help of a 3.5% gain.
Best Buy
(BBY) - Get Report
is also moving well and is up over 4.5%.
On Friday, Best Buy put in new lows for the month and looked ready to give up the strong support it had been holding all month. The breakaway gap area left behind in late March, after the company's
, had held earlier in the month but was beginning to look vulnerable by midday Friday. Even though downside volume had fallen off quite a bit, the price action did not offer much confidence.
Things have changed dramatically this morning. Although volume is a bit light, price action is very healthy and indicates another leg higher has begun. We can now assume that Best Buy completed a healthy consolidation and pullback following its huge rally off the March lows. The pullback retraced one-third of the rally, filling its March 25 gap ($34.60) along the way. The contraction of downside volume as the consolidation wore on was a leading tell that the support would hold.
Best Buy has a bit of overhead to work through just above $37.00, but I doubt this will hold the stock back for long. Volume will certainly need to pick up to push through, but it is still early in the rebound. I expect Best Buy to challenge its April highs, just above $42.00, in the next few weeks.
Long Best Buy (in managed accounts)
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This article was written by a staff member of RealMoney.com.
