After one of the worst trading days of the year for the stock market, Jim Cramer told his Mad Money viewers they should be prepared for the pundits to proclaim the top has finally come. But in reality, today's selloff was a perfectly normal event, and nothing to get hysterical about.
Cramer listed the top 10 reasons the pundits will tell you the market has reached its peak, starting with today's IMF global growth numbers. He said this metric has always been a lagging indicator and is already baked into stock prices. China came in as the No. 2 reason, but Cramer felt investors should consider the possibility of a deal as well as the possibility of no deal.
Stocks being overbought and overvalued are two more concerns the bears will cite. Cramer said that historically speaking, however, stocks are still well within normal ranges. He was also not worried about the inverted yield curve, which was self-inflicted by the Federal Reserve, or by earnings. He noted that even when a company disappoints, its stock doesn't stay down for long.
Some individual stocks are causing some concern for the bears, including Boeing (BA - Get Report) and FAANG, but Cramer said all things considered , these stocks have held up well. (FAANG is Cramer's acronym for Facebook (FB - Get Report) , Amazon (AMZN - Get Report) , Apple (AAPL - Get Report) , Netflix (NFLX - Get Report) and Alphabet (GOOGL - Get Report) .)
Finally, Cramer said he's not concerned about rising oil prices, as stocks and oil have traded in tandem for quite some time. The only legitimate worry on his top 10 was housing and autos, both of which are indeed weakening, although they are doing so despite the economy.
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The Bear Case for Zillow
Great management makes all the difference for many companies, Cramer reminded viewers, but sometimes even great leadership isn't enough. That may be the case with Zillow (ZG - Get Report) , the real estate listing service that made the odd decision to expand into buying and selling homes, a decision that cost then CEO Spencer Prescott his job.
Shares of Zillow have been able to rally recently on the news the company plans to flip as many as 5,000 homes a month, generating up to $20 billion in additional revenue. But Cramer cautioned that while he's a big believer in Zillow's new CEO, Rich Barton, it may take some time to turn this ship around.
The bull case for Zillow posits that the company has a terrific core business, and selling homes will only add to the company's bottom line, even if it does add more risk. The bear case, however, noted that Zillow purchased 686 homes so far, but has only sold 177 of them, leaving a backlog of 509. Given that the best homes usually sell first, Zillow could be building a backlog of less desirable properties. Furthermore, the bears proclaim that it will be a lot more costly to buy and renovate homes at scale than Zillow may be leading on.
Cramer said he's siding with the bears. Zillow and Barton may indeed be able to make flipping homes profitable, but it's far too early to know for sure.
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Off the Charts
In the "Off The Charts" segment, Cramer checked in with colleague Carley Garner to see whether two of the market's leaders, namely tech and oil, can continue to power higher.
Garner first looked at a daily chart comparing the Nasdaq 100 Futures with the price of crude oil. She noted that over the past 90 days, this pair have traded in lockstep 94% of the time, peaking in October and bottoming in December. She felt both could rally still higher from current levels.
Garner said the Nasdaq could return to all-time highs, up 11% from current levels, before the charts begin to turn against it. As for crude, she consulted the Commitment of Traders report to see that many large investors still have room to buy. She felt oil could see $80 a barrel before hitting resistance, possibly even $85 a barrel. She felt a return to oil's floor of support at $55 a barrel was unlikely.
Executive Decision: Hannon Armstrong
For his "Executive Decision" segment, Cramer sat down with Jeff Eckel, chairman, president and CEO of Hannon Armstrong (HASI - Get Report) , a REIT that only invests in sustainable infrastructure projects. Shares of Hannon are up 34% for the year.
Eckel explained that the three big environmental trends at the moment are decentralization, digitalization and decarbonization. In the past three years especially, the introduction of energy storage systems and lower costs for wind and solar have accelerated the transition to sustainable energy.
Eckel added that the biggest environmental threat we face is carbon. And while it may be hard for companies to give up profitable legacy businesses, eventually every company is going to have to change their ways. Hannon focuses on giving investors real returns on projects that matter, Eckel explained, and the projects that matter need more investment.
Cramer applauded Eckel's efforts to help keep climate change a part of the conversation and the investing landscape.
Caution on Oil
In his "No-Huddle Offense" segment, Cramer pondered whether it's finally time to buy the oil stocks, given the rise in crude oil. He recalled his optimism last year, however, which was foiled by a slowing economy and rising interest rates. Could this year be different?
Cramer said the pipeline plays like Kinder Morgan (KMI - Get Report) just don't have the growth investors crave, while oil producers like Anadarko Petroleum (APC - Get Report) missed horribly on earnings. These trends have left him with little conviction to buy the oil stocks, he said, even though now is probably a good time to begin a position.
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