What's driving this seesaw market? Jim Cramer told his Mad Money viewers on Thursday that he's got four things that are keeping investors awake at night, but not all of them are worth of worrying about.
The first worry is recession. Many investors still think that tariffs and the trade war can bring down the entire economy. But Cramer said there are plenty of sectors that don't need China, which is how shares of Adobe (ADBE - Get Report) were able to rally 2.3% Thursday.
The next thing is the prospect of Elizabeth Warren becoming president. Warren is not a fan of many industries, including managed care. That's why Cigna (CI - Get Report) received a glowing analyst upgrade but still fell 3.5% by the close. Stocks like UnitedHealth Group (UNH - Get Report) have never been cheaper.
The third thing weighing on the market is impeachment. Cramer said this fear is simply not going to happen with a Republican-controlled Senate. The proceedings may, however, embolden the Chinese into waiting out the trade war rather than trying to make a deal soon.
The final market worry, and the most significant according to Cramer, is the IPO market, which continues to outstrip demand with increasingly lackluster deals. After the WeWork IPO was finally scrapped, today we got Peloton (PTON) , which debuted to an abysmal opening.
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Sit Down and Get to Work
As long as the labor market remains strong, companies will need to pay up to make their offices look great and attract top employees. That was Cramer's take after listening to the conference calls of Herman Miller (MLHR - Get Report) and Steelcase (SCS - Get Report) , two high-end office furniture providers.
Shares of Herman Miller are up 52% this year, with Steelcase gaining 24%. The bears had ravaged these names earlier in the year, citing recession fears and the trade war as the culprits of their demise. But this quarter, both companies came roaring back with strong sales and earnings and rising gross margins.
On their conference call, Steelcase said they just had the best quarter in over a decade, while Herman Miller noted that falling steel prices and better execution far outweighed any effects from tariffs. Cramer said it's clear that a strong job market is what matters most to these two companies and there are no signs that job market is letting up anytime soon.
Peloton and the IPO Cycle
Peloton may be a hot company with incredible growth, but at this point in the IPO cycle, the stock is just not something investors are looking for. That was Cramer's take on the 11.1% decline in Peloton's stock Thursday, the day it started trading. The company has an intriguing story, selling connected exercise equipment and subscriptions to content that keeps you motivated to use them, but this deal simply came to market a few months too late.
Cramer said the problem with Peloton is the company has no earnings. While its 511,000 subscribers are impressive, its rising costs to attract and retain those subscribers isn't. Sales and marketing costs rose 114% when the company last reported, while the cost of its services rose 127%, primarily due to increased music licensing fees.
But Cramer said there's more to worry about at Peloton. The company is, after all, just an exercise equipment maker that has lots of competition from gyms, fitness apps and a host of other exercise options. The IPO also has a dual-class structure, giving retail investors little say in the direction of the company. Finally, there's a lawsuit pending for Peloton regarding those music license fees and the cost of that matter is an unknown.
There is a price at which Peloton makes sense, Cramer concluded, but even after today's plunge, we haven't seen that price, given all of the risks.
Executive Decision: Taylor Morrison Homes
For his "Executive Decision" segment, Cramer sat down with Sheryl Palmer, chairman and CEO of Taylor Morrison Homes (TMHC - Get Report) , to get a read on the housing market now that new home starts are at 12-year highs thanks to plunging interest rates.
Palmer said the media likes to focus too much on soundbites and doesn't take the time to learn the entire story. She said while home affordability is an issue for some buyers, it's not as bad as the media would have you believe. In reality, she said interest rates are low, incomes and savings are up, which combine to create a great time to buy a home.
When asked about those buying homes, Palmer said she's seeing lot of strength from both the millennials and boomers, with about a third of their buyers coming from the millennial category. She noted the average age for a millennial buying a home is a little older, around age 32 to 33, but those buyers are getting married and are having children and want to settle down just as their parents did.
Stock Market Tailwinds
In his "No-Huddle Offense" segment, Cramer said you don't need a weatherman to know which way the tailwinds in the market are blowing. Stocks like KB Home (KBH - Get Report) and Jabil Circuit (JBL - Get Report) might be boring, but they're classic American companies that are thriving, under the radar.
As we heard from Taylor Morrison, housing remains strong, and KB Home also confirmed that supply is tight, demand is rising and market conditions are favorable for growth. Housing accounts for 10% of the U.S. economy, Cramer reminded viewers, and it has the power to lift the entire economy, even if autos are floundering.
As for Jabil Circuit, they assemble and package goods for hundreds of companies across the economy, and things are looking up in areas like 5G wireless and the Internet of things.
On Real Money, Cramer has more on the stockpicking tailwinds. Get more of Cramer's insights with a free trial subscription to Real Money.
In the Lightning Round, Cramer was bullish on Advanced Micro Devices (AMD - Get Report) , Take-Two Interactive (TTWO - Get Report) , Realogy Holdings (RLGY - Get Report) and Cronos Group (CRON - Get Report) .
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