The market is going to try and put in a bottom next week, Jim Cramer told his Mad Money viewers Friday. But make no mistake: the Federal Reserve has gone from a tailwind to a full-blown headwind for stocks.
Cramer said Fed Chair Jay Powell's comments that the Fed is willing to overshoot on interest rates to keep inflation at bay was very harmful to the markets, making investors long for the days when a quiet, data-driven Janet Yellen was at the helm. In fact, many areas of our economy are already slowing, like housing, autos and possibly even retail, making excessive rate hikes unnecessary.
Cramer's game plan for next week starts, as it often does on Monday, with likely more tough talk from the White House on tariffs. Those comments will continue to weigh on the markets, especially the industrials.
On Tuesday, both JM Smucker (SJM - Get Report) and Okta (OKTA - Get Report) will he holding analyst days. Smucker is off 17% for the year and investors need to hear management's plans to revive the stock. Meanwhile Okta is up over 150% for the year and is still worth owning as the market declines.
Finally, on Friday, it's banking day, with Citigroup (C - Get Report) , JPMorgan Chase (JPM - Get Report) , Wells Fargo (WFC - Get Report) and PNC Financial (PNC - Get Report) reporting. Higher rates are a good thing for the banks, but many of the regionals, like PNC, have been struggling.
Cramer and the AAP team say they like these stocks in times of volatility: Johnson & Johnson (JNJ - Get Report) , Goldman Sachs (GS - Get Report) and more. Find out what they're telling their investment club members and get in on the conversation with a free trial subscription to Action Alerts PLUS.
When investors start selling stocks because of inflation fears, it typically takes a few days to work itself out, Cramer told viewers. But it's not too early to begin thinking about what to buy when the selling subsides.
Cramer said that Guidewire Software (GWRE - Get Report) is becoming an intriguing story. The company provides enterprise software to the insurance industry to handle everything from billing and claims to underwriting. While Guidewire is a seemingly boring company, it's making the all-too-exciting transition to the cloud and the even-more-exciting move to subscription billing.
As we've seen from Adobe Systems (ADBE - Get Report) and Autodesk (ADSK - Get Report) , subscriptions are a lot more lucrative than traditional software, but it's not always a smooth transition. The company's guidance on Sept. 5 was lower than expected, sending shares on a downward spiral, one typical of when a momentum stock falls out of favor.
Shares of Guidewire still trade at nine times sales, giving them the valuation of a "Cloud King" without the growth of one. But management says that growth is coming, forecasting their ability to double revenues over the next five years.
Cramer said he'd still wait for the market to bottom before starting a position in Guidewire, but noted the cloud stocks are still the place to be.
Gains for Eli Lily
While the entire market was rolling over this week, shares of Eli Lilly (LLY - Get Report) have been quietly heading higher, rising for nine sessions in a row. Shares are up from $74 back in March to over $115 today. What's going on? Cramer explained.
Lilly entered 2018 with many analysts bullish on the stock. But after fears of competition for its diabetes drug resulted in two analyst downgrades, not even raising guidance in late January could stop the selling. The bearish analysts painted the most bleak of outlooks for Lilly. The only problem? They were dead wrong.
It took until early summer for investors to figure that out, however. But once they did, shares began to move higher. As sales of Lilly's newest drugs came in better than expected, the company unlocked even more value by announcing the spin off of their animal health division. This week, the company received analyst upgrade with a price target of $130.
The next time an analyst tells you a company is falling to its competition, make sure that analyst has done their homework, Cramer concluded.
Executive Decision: Cloudera
Reilly said Cloudera and Hortonworks have been "going at it" for over 10 years, and by combining the two companies, they'll be creating immense shareholder value. The combined company is forecasting greater than 20% annual growth. Reilly said they'll be a stronger company with greater scale, able to compete better with a new class of cloud competitors.
When asked for a simple explanation of what the company does for customers like Samsung Electronics, Reilly explained that Samsung makes connected devices, and Cloudera provides the secure, enterprise cloud that those devices connect to and provides data and analytic services.
In his "No-Huddle Offense" segment, Cramer said what keeps him up at night isn't tariffs or China, it's the new narrative that retail is dead.
Retailers were aided earlier this year by tax cuts, but now they face rising interest rates and oil prices, tough comparisons from last year and increasing fears about, yes, tariffs and that they'll do the price of just about everything.
Cramer said the discounters like TJX Companies (TJX - Get Report) and Ollie's Bargain Outlet (OLLI - Get Report) will likely be immune to the negativity, but others won't, especially as the perception that stocks can't be as good as last year permeates. He said stocks like Macy's (M - Get Report) and Best Buy (BBY - Get Report) will be at the heart of the exodus, which is why investors need to be careful.
Over on Real Money, Cramer explains more why he thinks retail stocks are going to get dumped. Get more of his insights with a free trial subscription to Real Money.
Cramer was bearish on Camping World (CWH - Get Report) , Thor Industries (THO - Get Report) , Spectrum Pharmaceuticals (SPPI - Get Report) , Avangrid (AGR - Get Report) and CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP - Get Report) .
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