Spotting a bottom in a stock isn't always easy, Jim Cramer told his Mad Money viewers Wednesday. There is a big difference between a value stock and a value trap, Cramer said, and knowing the difference is vital to your portfolio.
Wednesday, an analyst downgraded FedEx (FDX - Get Report) , yet the stock powered higher. Why? Because the bad news of a slowing economy is already baked into the FedEx share price. What's not baked in, however, is a resolution to the trade war, which would send shares skyrocketing.
Then there's Salesforce.com (CRM - Get Report) , which plunged on Monday after the company announced it was acquiring Tableau Software (DATA) . Investors feared the high price and all-stock nature of the deal would dilute existing shareholders, but Cramer reminded viewers we've seen this scenario before and Salesforce has a long history of creating value.
Next, Cramer said United Technologies (UTX - Get Report) is another stock that has seen its share of weakness, as investors struggle to understand the company's breakup and acquisition plans that involve a lot of different moving parts. Further complicating matters are activist investors with their own agendas.
Finally, Cramer called out Facebook (FB - Get Report) and Lam Research (LRCX - Get Report) , two more stocks that declined Wednesday. Cramer felt both stocks were worth buying as the bad news is already priced into the stock.
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Snacking on Consumer Packaged Goods
With a softening economy, investors typically look for safety in consumer packaged goods, but not all CPG companies are created equal. Shares of Hershey (HSY - Get Report) have soared from $105 to $138 so far this year, while others like Kraft Heinz (KHC - Get Report) have fallen 30%. That's for good reason, Cramer explained, as Hershey has gone through a remarkable turnaround over the past two years.
Hershey deserves a spot on your shopping list, Cramer said, as the company has successful diversified away from candy and into the lucrative and fast-growing snack food business. Cost-cutting efforts have more than offset rising cocoa and commodity prices, and Hershey is even making inroads into the health and wellness category.
Hershey is also an innovator, Cramer added, constantly creating new variations for beloved brands that keep consumers longing for more.
Trading at 24 times earnings however, Cramer said shares are getting expensive. He suggested waiting for a pullback before starting a position and even taking some profits if you already own it.
In a world where department stores are losing customers in droves, you have to wonder where all of those customers are going. Cramer told viewers he found the answer: They're going to Revolve (RVLV) , this week's red-hot online retail IPO that was up another 3% in Wednesday's session.
Cramer said Revolve has reinvented fashion. The company operates three websites, each with a distinct market. They launch hundreds of new items at a time in small batches, then use data and analytics to find the ones that work the best. This has made the company successful, and eight of their top 10 brands are their own.
Revolve was able to post 21% revenue growth year-over-year thanks to strong execution and stellar marketing that heavily leverages social media. The company is also profitable.
Cramer said he loves the Revolve story, but there is a problem. Shares now trade at 90 times earnings, or 5.5 times sales. That makes it far too pricey, even for speculation. Cramer said viewers need to wait for a better entry point.
Off the Tape: Quicken Loans
In his "Off The Tape" segment, Cramer sat down with Jay Farner, CEO of the privately-held Quicken Loans, for the latest read on the mortgage market, which has surged in recent weeks as lending rates have fallen.
Farner said this quarter, and June in particular, is shaping up to be the best ever for Quicken Loans, both in the purchase and refinance markets. He said Quicken Loans is all about technology, people and their clients. They want to reach out and make sure everyone deserving of a loan has access to a loan.
When asked how they compare to traditional lenders, Farner explained there's no correlation between taking deposits and making loans. Quicken Loans only makes loans, but they follow the same rules and guidelines as everyone else.
As for those guidelines, Farner said regulations are important, but added that constant changes in regulations only hurt the industry and the consumer.
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Why This Market's Hard to Navigate
In his "No-Huddle Offense" segment, Cramer showcased two examples of why the market has become so difficult to navigate. Shares of Eli Lilly (LLY - Get Report) fell from $118 to $112 earlier this week after the company presented what analysts felt was disappointing data on a new drug. But today, shares rose 2.7% on no news at all.
Cramer said the cause for these rallies is simple. As the economy is seen to be weakening, investors are rotating into safety stocks which include the drugmakers. This rotation is powerful enough to undo even bad news, he said, but investors need to be careful, because if the economy appears to strengthen, these gains will disappear as fast as they appeared.
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