Investors need to learn to live with a volatile market, Jim Cramer told his Mad Money viewers Tuesday. Even though the stock market is listening to the wrong things, investors must always remember that the market can stay wrong longer than they can stay solvent.
What is the market getting wrong? Cramer said it's taking its cues from the bond market, mistakenly assuming that low bond yields mean a recession is looming. While that may have been true in years past, right now, investors from around the globe are flocking to the U.S. because our bonds pay more than anywhere else in the world.
It wasn't that long ago stocks were mistakenly linked to oil. Investors assumed that falling oil prices meant falling demand. But that tried-and-true notion was turned upside down by increased U.S. oil production.
The markets are acting like a needy baby, Cramer concluded. It only cares about a trade deal. But the fact is that a trade deal probably isn't likely anytime soon and U.S. companies are going to take a lot longer to get their manufacturing out of China than the White House would like.
Investors need to get used to this new reality.
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Executive Decision: Splunk
For his "Executive Decision" segment, Cramer sat down with Doug Merritt, president and CEO of Splunk (SPLK) , the cloud analytics company that just posted an 18-cents-a-share earnings beat.
Merritt first responded to investor concerns about the company's cash flow by reminding them that Splunk is converting from perpetual to subscription-based licensing. As such, its cash flow will be lower in the short term, as only a portion of contracts can now be recognized. Over the long-term however, Splunk will follow in the footsteps of Adobe Systems (ADBE) and other cloud software providers who have made similar transitions.
When asked about his company's growth rate, Merritt said it's among the fastest growing software companies in history thanks to a growing market and a growing product portfolio that has increased from a single offering to over 10 products today.
Merritt added that customers stick with Splunk because they offer mission-critical services and monitoring. Customers often start with just one area and expand into others over time.
Executive Decision: Nestle
In his second "Executive Decision" segment, Cramer sat down with Mark Schneider, CEO of the Switzerland-based Nestle (NSRGY) , the packaged foods giant with sales up 37% for the year as investors flock to recession-proof companies.
Schneider first commented on Nestle's partnership with Starbucks (SBUX) , whose CEO, Kevin Johnson, appeared on the show earlier this week. He said the partnership really is a win-win with Starbuck's great brand and products paired with Nestle's global distribution network. The first wave of products from the year-old deal are now on store shelves in 16 markets and the second wave of products is due to be launched in the fall.
Turning to the topic of sustainability, Schneider said recycling is a very important issue for Nestle and the company has from the beginning recycled their aluminum Nespresso coffee pods. Schneider showcased a bicycle made from recycled pods, one of 1,000 bikes in a pilot program.
Plant-based products are also a focus for Nestle, Schneider said, not only for meat-based products like burgers but also in the dairy aisle for items like ice cream. Increasing the number of plant-based alternatives will continue to be a driver of growth for the company.
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Off the Charts: Market Volatility
In the "Off The Charts" segment, Cramer checked in with colleague Larry Williams over the direction of our volatile markets. Williams used three different cycle indicators to predict the markets are done going down and are finally ready to rally.
Williams first looked at the Daily Advance-Decline Line Cycle Forecast, noting a regular pattern of rallies and selloffs. According to this pattern, the markets are likely to head a little lower, but not for long. By October through the end of the year, they should be poised to rally.
Williams next looked at the Vix Cycle Forecast, noting that this indicator also predicts it's near time for the S&P 500 to rally.
Finally, Williams looked at another S&P indicator, this time the S&P 500 E-Mini Cycle forecast. This forecasting tool also shows a regular pattern signaling a bullish move on the horizon.
Check Politics at the Door
In his "No-Huddle Offense" segment, Cramer reminded viewers that your political views should have nothing to do with your portfolio. Investing, he said, is not about judging politicians, it's about judging outcomes.
For example, it doesn't matter whether President Trump was telling the truth or not about receiving phone calls from China about trade talks. What mattered was the outcome the news would have on the markets. Some presidents have been great for the country, but bad for the stock market. Others, vice versa. So rather than judging the person when it comes to investing, judge the effect he or she has on your portfolio.
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