In between President Trump's meeting with Chinese President Xi Jingping this weekend, and next Friday's employment numbers, there's a lot happening, Jim Cramer told his Mad Money viewers Friday. Investors need to stay focused, Cramer said, as he laid out what he'll be keeping an eye on.
Cramer noted that stocks ended higher on Friday, Nov. 30, as investors kept an eye on the start of the G-20 summit in Argentina and prepped for the scheduled showdown between Trump and Xi that could end or intensify the ongoing trade war between the world's two biggest economies.
On Saturday, all eyes will be on the talks to learn if a trade deal can be reached, or more likely, tariffs will rise from 10% to 25% beginning next month.
Next on Tuesday, it's earnings from Dollar General (DG - Get Report) , AutoZone (AZO) , HD Supply (HDS - Get Report) , home builder Toll Brothers (TOL - Get Report) and RH (RH - Get Report) , formerly known as Restoration Hardware. Cramer was bullish on the three retailers, but wanted to get a read on the economy from HD Supply and the outlook on the housing market from Toll Brothers.
Then on Thursday we hear from Kroger (KR - Get Report) , Broadcom (BRCM) and Ulta Beauty (ULTA - Get Report) . Cramer was bullish on Ulta, bearish on Kroger and was taking a wait-and-see approach to Broadcom.
Finally, on Friday we get the latest non-farm payroll numbers. Cramer said this will likely be the last strong employment report we see and will be the justification for one more interest rate hike before the Federal Reserve takes a pause.
What To Watch For
What should investors be expecting from this weekend's meeting between the U.S. and China? Cramer laid out five possible scenarios and gave the likelihood of each.
Scenario 1: A trade deal. With China's economy slowing, a deal is possible, but it's unlikely given China's "no surrender" mantra. Cramer gave this scenario a likelihood of 10%.
Scenario 2: Delayed 25% tariffs. In this scenario, Trump gives China more time and maybe receives some concessions. Cramer said this is another 10% possibility.
Scenario 3: 25% tariffs in January but a hold on new tariffs. Cramer said this was the most likely, with a 50% chance.
Scenario 4: 25% tariffs in January and 10% tariffs on new goods. This is the plan Trump has already proposed and has a 25% change of happening.
Scenario 5: Immediate 25% tariffs on everything. This is unlikely, Cramer said, but he can't rule out a 5% chance of it happening.
What will the market's reaction be to these outcomes? The most likely scenario would be the status quo, but many money managers are not positioned for this outcome. He said the markets will likely sell off Monday morning, and that's the chance to buy the recession stocks like Procter & Gamble (PG - Get Report) , PepsiCo (PEP - Get Report) and Clorox (CLX - Get Report) while avoiding the techs and the industrials.
Cramer and the AAP team outline their views on the scenarios for this weekend's G-20 summit. Find out what they're telling their investment club members and get in on the conversation with a free trial subscription to Action Alerts PLUS.
From Snap to Sell?
When Snap came public in 2017, the company looked pretty promising. It had a hot product, stunning user growth, no debt, and $1 billion in the bank. After the IPO, the company's cash hoard rocketed to $3.2 billion.
But after a series of earnings misses, slowing growth and new offerings that are confusing existing users, Cramer said the company's cash position is becoming a concern. Just two years later, Snap's cash now sits at just $1.4 billion. This is because Snap has been a big spender, but it's also because the cloud, it turns out, is expensive when you have hundreds of millions of video uploads on a daily basis.
The day-to-day costs at Snap are extraordinary, Cramer noted, and with the company's stock structure, 80% of the company is controlled by the founders, leaving no possibility for an activist investor to invoke change.
Cramer said with all these risks, and Snap's declining user base, it's ill-advised to invest in this stock no matter how cheap it looks.
Executive Decision: Kar Auction Services
In his "Executive Decision" segment, Cramer welcomed Jim Hallett, chairman and CEO of KAR Auction Services (KAR - Get Report) , to the show to discuss his company and the outlook for the auto industry given the massive layoffs announced at General Motors (GM - Get Report) .
Hallett said investors can think of KAR Auction as the New York Stock Exchange of the car business. They facilitate the buying and selling of used and salvage vehicles and have both physical auctions as well as platforms for online auctions.
When asked who buys their vehicles, Hallett explained that even damaged vehicles will be bought by domestic and international buyers that may rebuild them or use them for parts. With the average age of a vehicle on the road now 11.5 years, used cars are playing a bigger and bigger part of the car business.
As for tariffs, Hallett added that tariffs on new cars will only drive more people to the used car market, and prices could rise for used cars as a result.
Finally, Hallett said that Mary Barra, CEO at GM, is a well respected executive that knows the car business. He said if she feels GM needs to restructure, then it's probably the right thing to do.
Over on Real Money, Cramer talks more about the companies that are well-prepared to cope with the impact of tariffs. Get more of his insights with a free trial subscription to Real Money.
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