Tesla Motors (TSLA) - Get Report posted a third-quarter earnings miss Tuesday yet its stock soared in after-hours trading on its production forecast. The CNBC "Fast Money" panel remains cautious on Tesla and also discussed which retail stocks should perform well in the weeks leading up to the "Black Friday" holiday shopping season.
During the earnings call, Tesla said it plans to deliver 50,000 to 52,000 vehicles during the fiscal year. The company noted that production of its new Model X has been a challenge, due to the availability of certain components.
Tesla's production forecast range for the year was narrower than the previous estimate of 50,000 to 55,000 presented during the second quarter. It marked the third time the company has lowered its full year delivery estimate since the summer, noted Dan Nathan, co-founder and editor of Riskreversal.com.
"Expectations coming into the quarter were not high. The stock sold off 23% in the last month or so and pretty much ever preview I read expected them to guide down the full year delivery," said Nathan. He believes Tesla's stock will see resistance at the $240 a share level in the near term.
Brian Kelly, founder of Brian Kelly Capital, said Tesla's after-hours performance was a positive reaction to less-than-negative news. "I'm not a buyer of Tesla at $230, but maybe if it gets to $180 I will take another peek at it," Kelly said.
Retail stocks are one place investors may want to focus. The day after Thanksgiving that's become known as Black Friday is three weeks away.
"If you look at the relative strength of the retail group against the S&P 500, the (retail group) peaks toward the the end of November, just after Thanksgiving," said Paul Hickey, co-founder of Bespoke Investment.
He added retail stocks as a group tend to be higher from mid-October through late November. "From there, we see investors starting to get away from the sector, as you start to hear about individual stocks," Hickey said.
"Barnes & Noble averages a gain of 9.3% month to date in November to pre-Thanksgiving and there has only been one down year in this bull market where the stock has been down during that period," Hickey said. "Investors have clearly gravitated toward that stock during that period."
One additional driver to spur retail stocks along has been the drop in gasoline prices, which puts more money into consumers' pockets.
"For U.S. department stores, this is the moment of truth," said Nathan. "If that gas at the pump will really help out consumers, it will be in the next month and a half or so at these stores."
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This article is commentary by an independent contributor. At the time of publication, the author held no positions in the stocks mentioned.