'Fast Money' Recap: Stress Test Trade

The trading panel discussed how to play the next round of stress tests for banks in 2012.

Author:: David Tong
Publish date:: Nov 22, 2011 8:09 PM EST

NEW YORK (

) -- The markets fell Tuesday despite a move by the IMF to deal with liquidity issues in Europe and the possibility of the

Fed

easing monetary policy.

The

Dow Jones Industrial Average

fell 53.59, or 0.46%, to 11,493.72. The

S&P 500

dropped 4.93, or 0.41%, to 1188.05. The

Nasdaq

lost 1.86, or 0.07%, to 2521.28.

Melissa Lee, the moderator of

CNBC

's "Fast Money" TV show, said that the

Fed

has scheduled another round of stress tests for 31 banks in the U.S. She said the six largest banks will undergo tough tests to determine how well they can do under a hypothetical global shock.

For a breakout of some stocks from a recent "Fast Money" TV show, check out Dan Fitzpatrick's "3 Stocks I Saw on TV."


3 Stocks I Saw on TV
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Joe Terranova said the stress tests will lay the groundwork the banks' capital strategy plans for 2012. He believes

Goldman Sachs

(GS) - Get Report

will fare the best of the six largest banks in being in a position to have enough capital for dividends and stock repurchases.

Steve Grasso viewed the tests as another headwind for banks that will allow investors to determine which banks are best to invest in. He said in the near term, investors will probably sell first and ask questions later.

Tim Seymour said the stress tests will be a pro-active move to make sure U.S. banks have the necessary capital base.

Karen Finerman was skeptical of the tests, saying they raise a number of questions. She wondered how the tests would be administered, whether the government would step in with equity injections to raise capital and how they would weigh the risks of sovereign debts.

Terranova said the tests will mirror the 2008 shock and test bank portfolios against a jobless rate of 13% and a 8% contraction in the GDP.

Fred Cannon, director of research for KBW, said the tough tests are designed to bring credibility back into the banking space. He acknowledged investors will find it tough to invest in bank stocks between now and the test results.

Lee noted that

Netflix

(NFLX) - Get Report

was down today despite having sold $400 million in stock and convertible bonds to raise much needed capital.

Len Brecken, of Brecken Capital, said Netflix is still dealing with an enormous $4.5 billion in off-balance sheet obligations that have led Hollywood to realize it won't get its money back. He said the company has serious problems: weak U.S. subscription growth in a saturated market.

Brecken, who has been famously short the stock, surprised the panel when he told them he is no longer in the stock. He said it was a portfolio decision and was repositioning into micronames. He said he covered his short on the leg down to $100 and acknowledged his trade wasn't perfect.

Lee shifted the panel's attention to

Apple

(AAPL) - Get Report

whose shares were up. Peter Misek, an analyst with Jefferies who has a buy rating on the stock and a price tag of $500, said the iPad is a seasonal item and remains the most coveted item for Christmas.

He said it will be interesting to see if the Kindle 5 is going to take away business from the iPad. He said sales on Black Friday and Cyber Monday will be significant.

Shifting to the fear trade, Alex Panagiotiois, of Stern Agee and Leach, said he was going to wait until Wednesday afternoon and even Friday morning to put on an options trade, in which he would be long the VIX. He said the believes the VIX will go higher because of the sovereign debt crisis in Europe and elevated U.S. bank CD levels.

Lee brought in Alan McKim, CEO of

Clean Harbors

(CLH) - Get Report

to talk about his business. He said his company is focused on boosting its North America business, helping companies in all phases of disaster planning.

Lee shifted to

Yandex

(YNDX) - Get Report

, which was put on the tactical buy list by Morgan Stanley.

Seymour said the stock at $20.56 looks interesting for a company that is known as the "Google of Russia." He said he was considering buying it.

Switching to Thanksgiving Day,

CNBC

reporter Jane Wells said grocers are pushing up the prices for Thanksgiving day dinner to their highest levels since 1990. He said it now costs $49.20 to feed a party of 10 on Thanksgiving day. She attributed the higher feed costs for the 22% hike in the cost of a turkey.

Despite the hard times, airlines are doing well, especially during the Thanksgiving break, with air travel up 2%. Ray Neidl, an analyst with Maxim Group, said the airlines are benefiting not only from higher fares but reduced capacity that pushes up yields. He said airlines will be making money in the fourth quarter and next year.

His best bet? Niche players like

Alaska Airlines

(ALK) - Get Report

Spirit Airlines

(SAVE) - Get Report

and

Hawaiian Airlines

(HA) - Get Report

, which opening up new routes to Asia..

In the final moves, J.J. Kinahan liked

General Electric

(GE) - Get Report