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"It's always better to be lucky than good," Jim Cramer said at the start of his "Mad Money" TV show Thursday evening. The little-known
, a small appliance maker whose products are sold at
, "is about to get real lucky," Cramer said.
Jarden, which Cramer says "isn't a great company, isn't even a
company," is in a war for retail shelf space against competitors
( APN) and
Cramer says Applica and Salton have overextended themselves with debt and are at risk of going bankrupt. So Wal-Mart and Target likely will be concerned about those two companies' ability to deliver products for the all-important Christmas season.
"That means that even if Jarden just stands still, it wins," Cramer said. "It doesn't need to be wide-eyed and grow the business by leaps and bounds. It just needs to show up. And show up it will."
With Jarden up $1 today, how much better can it do? one caller asked.
"Jarden is up against a season more than it is against players," Cramer said. "Here's what I would do. Buy a little when it opens tomorrow. If it comes down Monday, buy a little more."
Cramer added: "I've checked with CEO Martin Franklin, and I think the near term is quite good. Is it blow-out? No. This is not a blowout-type company. The blowout will come from the kind of big-shelf-space take that I think they'll take from the other brain-dead guys. Like Woody Allen said, 'Sometimes you just gotta show up.' Jarden's going to show up."
On the day before the anniversary of
IPO and on the day the Internet search giant announced a
$4 billion secondary offering, Cramer performed a first on his show: an exorcism.
Cramer said everyone has a "curmudgeon value investor demon" inside him that must be exorcised occasionally in order not to miss investment opportunities. The curmudgeon value investor says you should never buy a stock with a P/E ratio of more than 20.
"You can't let value investors keep you from owning Google," Cramer said.
The mutual fund manager's short-hand rule is to pay twice the growth rate for a growth stock. Google has been growing at a rate of some 35%. Paying twice Google's growth rate would yield a P/E multiple of 70. Cramer believes conservatively that Google is capable of earning $9 a share in 2007, which would equate to a stock price of $630.
While that may sound ridiculous, Cramer said, consider
, which trades at roughly the same P/E multiple but has a smaller growth rate.
( WFMI) also trades at a P/E in the ballpark of Google's, with only two-thirds the growth rate.
What's more, in a slowing economic environment, Cramer believes a stock like Google, which doesn't have much economic sensitivity, is worth a super premium, perhaps three times its growth rate. That would equate to a stock price of $810.
The bottom line, Cramer says, is even if Google's growth rate slows to 25% next year and you pay a multiple of twice its growth rate -- and even if Google earns only $7 a share -- 50 times $7 equals a stock price of $350. And that is Cramer's target.
"When I use that kind of analysis, I realize that wherever they price this big block slug of stock, you, my friends, are going to make money." And, Cramer said, if it does sink below the offering price, "then you do the 'mon back," which is to say, back up the truck and buy.
A caller asked if the increase in the stock's float due to the secondary offering will make a difference as to if or when the stock might be added to the
"Do I think this makes it more likely?" asked Cramer. "Yeah. Probably. But, it's not why we buy stocks." It is Google's fundamentals, he said.
Cramer related a story about a visit to a casino with his mother 25 years ago to explain why he changed his thinking on oil stocks this week. He said he and his mother had won $100 on slots by 10:30 a.m., and his mother promptly led them out of the casino despite his protestations. His mother then bought a $100 sweater she'd had her eye on, and wore the sweater for years.
"I got a lifetime's worth of financial knowledge out of (that situation)."
Whether gambling or investing, discipline is discipline, said Cramer.
"It is true I still own some energy for my charitable trust. But, I prefer a sweater right now over staying full-bore at the (slot) machine."
Finally, Cramer said
reported an "excellent" quarter after the close. "The tech thesis is still playing out here."
Cramer was bullish on
Varian Medical Systems
Marvell Technology Group
( NGPS) and
Cramer was bearish on
Knight Capital Group
Electronic Data Systems
Allied Waste Industries
( AW) and
At the time of publication, Cramer was long Altria, Commerce Bancorp, UnitedHealth Group and Yahoo!.
James J. Cramer is a director and co-founder of TheStreet.com. He contributes daily market commentary for TheStreet.com's sites and serves as an adviser to the company's CEO. Outside contributing columnists for TheStreet.com and RealMoney.com, including Cramer, may, from time to time, write about stocks in which they have a position. In such cases, appropriate disclosure is made. To see his personal portfolio and find out what trades Cramer will make before he makes them, sign up for
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