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After another triple-digit loss in the
market, Jim Cramer told viewers of his "Mad Money" TV show Tuesday that he knows what a bottom looks like for tech, and it's not what investors might think.
His comments came on a day when the Nasdaq dropped 108.08 points, or 5.8%, to 1754.88. Over the past five days, the index has fallen 16.1%.
Cramer turned to the history books to remind viewers that after the dot-com bubble of 2001-2002 many of the bellwether names on the index, including
, fell 80% to 90% before finally hitting bottom.
He reminded viewers that there were pundits then who recommended these names all the way down while warning them it was too late to sell. The average tech stock fell 78% back then and could do so again, he said.
Cramer said there are three things that need to happen before a bottom in tech can occur. First, the earnings estimates for these companies need to be cut repeatedly until the companies can beat them. Second, companies with bulging inventories need to work through those inventories. And finally, the economy needs to turn around.
Cramer said based on current market conditions, we're nowhere near a bottom. The estimates haven't been cut, he said, noting only one downgrade of
He said companies have just now hit the inventory wall and haven't even begun to work off excess products.
Finally, Cramer said the economy is not turning around anytime soon.
Tech stocks are cyclical and they don't have to bounce back, he reminded viewers.
Cramer: Bad Return on Buybacks
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A Future in Cloud Computing
After turning negative on the tech sector, Cramer talked with Mark Benioff, chairman and CEO of
, to see whether his company, with its 40% growth rate, can buck the trend and be a standout amongst a lagging industry.
Benioff said that customer success is still the key at Salesforce, and that he's redoubling his efforts to spend even more time with their customers to find out what they need and provide it.
He said the company has switched its message from promoting features and functions, to how customers can save time, money and resources by moving to the company's cloud computing model.
Regarding the company's large cash position, Benioff said that Salesforce remains cautious and conservative, with no plans for the more than $6 a share of cash it has on the balance sheet.
Cramer said he's always been a big fan of Salesforce and the company's business model. However, with a 57 multiple, he said the company remains priced for perfection and he simply can't recommend the stock despite its recent decline.
Cramer said as soon as the economy improves, Salesforce, with its 49% revenue growth last quarter, will be among the first to rocket higher.
A Sweet Comeback
Despite accusations to the contrary, Cramer actually recommend a stock --
-- which he says is a $45 stock hiding inside of a $38 stock.
Cramer said the period from 2001 to 2005 was the golden age for Hershey, when the company was able to grow earnings at a compound rate of 14% a year. However since 2006, Hershey has been struggling with high commodity costs, among other issues, and has only been able to deliver 4%-to-6% earnings growth and only 2.6% sales growth last year.
However Cramer said Hershey is poised for a comeback, with commodity prices plummeting and the company able to push through not one, but two price increases earlier this year.
Cramer said sugar, with accounts for 19% of Hershey's costs is down huge in recent weeks. Cocoa, which accounts for 15% of the company's costs, is down 21% since June, and milk, which represents 9% of costs, is expected to decline 5.5% over the next 12 months.
With Halloween approaching a new CEO at the helm since 2007, Cramer expects Hershey to have a blowout third quarter against the already lowered estimates.
The company has streamlined its supply chain, stepped up advertising, expanded overseas, including in China, and is breaking into the premium chocolate segment, all things that Cramer said makes Hershey's an extra sweet stock play.
Cramer was bullish on
Packaging Corp of America
Alliance Resource Partners
He was bearish on
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At the time of publication, Cramer was not long on any stock.
Jim Cramer, host of the CNBC television program "Mad Money," is a Markets Commentator for TheStreet.com, Inc., and CNBC, and a director and co-founder of TheStreet.com. All opinions expressed by Mr. Cramer on "Mad Money" are his own and do not reflect the opinions of TheStreet.com or its affiliates, or CNBC, NBC UNIVERSAL or their parent company or affiliates. Mr. Cramer's opinions are based upon information he considers to be reliable, but neither TheStreet.com, nor CNBC, nor either of their affiliates and/or subsidiaries warrant its completeness or accuracy, and it should not be relied upon as such. Mr. Cramer's statements are based on his opinions at the time statements are made, and are subject to change without notice. No part of Mr. Cramer's compensation from CNBC or TheStreet.com is related to the specific opinions expressed by him on "Mad Money."
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