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NEW YORK (
) -- Just how much downside is left in the market? Jim Cramer told
viewers Thursday it all depends on Friday's non-farm payroll numbers.
Get the right number and all could be well, but get the wrong number and the selling will continue.
Cramer explained the target non-farm payroll number is 160,000 new jobs. Above that number and the market will sell off on fear interest rates are on the rise. But below that number the market will sell off because the economy is weaker than we thought. That only leaves a small window for success, said Cramer, which is why he's calculating tomorrow's worst-case scenario.
The last leg of the market's rally began in February, said Cramer, when the
Dow Jones Industrial Average
sat at 13,800. The move was spurred by a wave of takeovers from the likes of Warren Buffett,
Of the stocks in the Dow, Cramer noted there are only 11 that are up huge since February and are therefore at risk for big declines. He said
are likely to hold onto their gains, but others including
could see their gains wiped out in minutes.
Calculating the worst case for all of these Dow stocks, Cramer said he's expecting a 600-point selloff if tomorrow's employment number goes awry. That may seem like a big plummet, he said, but it's only a 3% to 4% decline that would send the markets back to Dow 14,360, a more than reasonable level if you're prepared for it.
Krispy Kreme: Jim Morgan
In the "Executive Decision" segment, Cramer spoke with Jim Morgan, chairman, president and CEO of
, a stock that's up 46% since Cramer got behind it in January. Krispy Kreme recently reported a four-cents-a-share earnings beat on an 11.4% rise in same-store sales.
Morgan said turning Krispy Kreme around wasn't an option, it was a necessity, but fortunately the company had a great brand with great team members already in place to help make returning to growth easy. He said the company was looking for three things before it jump-started growth plans: strong franchisees, a solid platform for success and thriving existing franchisees. Now that Krispy Kreme has all three it's no wonder same-store sales are on the rise, said Morgan.
But Morgan cautioned that Krispy Kreme won't be delivering 11% growth every quarter, although he expects 4% to 6% growth is attainable. He said the company is trying new ways to bring customers in at different times of day and its specialty coffees are performing very well. International sales are another strong point for Krispy Kreme, said Morgan.
Finally, when asked how the company sees itself in a world that is becoming increasingly health-oriented, Morgan said he views Krispy Kreme as a treat, an indulgence that can be enjoyed in moderation. There's more to life than just physical health, he said, and donuts clearly increase one's emotional health.
Cramer said he continues to be a believer in Krispy Kreme's turnaround and growth efforts.
A Perfect Target
The market is still in love with takeovers, Cramer told viewers, which is why a company such as
is the perfect target now that the markets have pulled back hard.
Cramer explained that Post, keeper of iconic cereal brands including Honey Combs, Raisin Bran, Shredded Wheat and, his personal fave, Fruity Pebbles, was sold to
( RAH) by the old Kraft Foods in 2008, only to be spun off again as an independent company in 2012.
Since then, Post has been holding its own but not performing overly well as the company is, frankly, too small to stay independent, said Cramer. Given the current wave of food mergers and consolidation, Cramer said Post is a natural prime target for the likes of
, which just bought Heinz, or
, a stock Cramer owns for his charitable trust,
Action Alerts PLUS.
Cramer said that as unlikely as it seems, the new
, which is now a domestic food player after its own breakup, is also a potential suitor for Post.
As for valuation, Cramer said using the Heinz valuation, Post is worth $3.1 billion, or $63 a share. But using a more conservative number, $53 a share, or a 25% increase in value, is very likely.
In the Lightning Round, Cramer was bullish on
Calumet Specialty Products
Executive Decision: Daniel Oh
In the "Executive Decision" segment, Cramer sat down with Daniel Oh, president and CEO of
Renewable Energy Group
, a small, speculative company whose stock has risen 125% so far this year.
Oh explained that 2% of the overall diesel pool now comes from biodiesel and his company's refineries are taking waste oil and fat products and refining them into high-quality fuels.
When asked about government incentives that encourage refiners to add biodiesel to their blends, Oh said his company was started before incentives and it is planning for the eventual end of those incentives. He said Renewable Energy Group continues to build a lean and competitive business that can survive in any environment.
Turning to the issue of larger competitors such as
Archer Daniels Midland
, Oh said ADM looks at biodiesel differently and makes its fuels directly from seeds, while Renewable Energy uses waste products, which doesn't impact upon the price we pay for food.
Cramer said Renewable Energy Group has an interesting, albeit speculative, business model and he encouraged investors to take a look and do their homework on the company.
No Huddle Offense
In his "No Huddle Offense" segment, Cramer said he doesn't put a lot of faith in technical analysis or macro-economic theories. He's more of a bottoms-up, sector by sector guy who relies on conference calls and good, old-fashioned homework, he said.
So what are individual companies saying? Cramer said he's not liking what he's hearing, especially from retailers including
. It appears that the economy is indeed taking a bit of a pause, he said, and that's worrisome.
Is it the end of world? Probably not, he said. But is it enough to be concerned and cautious? Absolutely.
To watch replays of Cramer's video segments, visit the Mad Money page on CNBC
-- Written by Scott Rutt in Washington, D.C.
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At the time of publication, Cramer's Action Alerts PLUS had a position in CSCO, PF.
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