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"I'm calling a housing bottom tonight," an exuberant Jim Cramer told the viewers of his "Mad Money" TV show Tuesday.
Cramer's call comes 14 days ahead of his original prediction, which called for a bottom in the housing market by June 30. However, after today's housing start numbers showed strength even in the nation's hardest hit areas, he amended his original call that was made back in August 2008.
Cramer said the latest reports showing a rise in housing starts and permits were too large to ignore. He said it proves the glut of excess inventory is finally behind us and home builders feel they can safely get rid of the land they've been sitting on by building homes.
Cramer said his housing bottom is not a call to buy the homebuilders, but rather a signal that home price depreciation has largely ended. He said that home prices will not be rising just yet, but they also will not be falling any longer.
Cramer said his bottom call also disproves the theory that interest rates have moved too far to promote home ownership.
Cramer said the stocks to own during a housing bottom are banks like
Bank Of America
, all of which he owns for his charitable trust,
Action Alerts PLUS and all of which have large mortgage exposure.
Cramer said new home formation, low interest rates, tax incentives and excess inventory have all made this bottom possible, and now is the time to step up and take notice.
Off the Charts
In his "Off The Charts" segment, Cramer went head to head with colleague Rick Bensignor over the chart of specialty drug maker
( SEPR). Bensignor sees Sepracor heading higher, but Cramer feels otherwise.
Bensignor said that Sepracor could hit $20 a share, a 30% gain, given the stock has broken its 200-day moving average and year-long downtrend line. Bensignor also said the stock has support from its recent lows, which should further bolster the stock's price.
But Cramer said Sepracor's tell a different story. He said the company's flagship drug, Lunesta, has been losing market share. The company also has one of two key patents expiring soon.
Looking toward the future, Cramer called Sepracor's pipeline of new drugs "substandard" with only nine current projects and only three of those in late stage testing.
Cramer said in his opinion, Bensignor is wrong, and Sepracor will not trend higher given its shaky fundamentals.
Retailers as Proxies
Cramer took a look at Goldman Sachs' recent downgrade of
and subsequent buy rating on competitor
and said it has nothing to do with either of these companies.
According to Cramer, the change in position at Goldman is simply a proxy for how the firm perceives consumer confidence and the economy overall. He said those on Wall Street who believe the economy is recovering like Target, a slightly more upscale venue with less aggressive discounting.
Those who believe the economy is getting worse like Wal-Mart, he said, as the company trends to be the destination of choice when times are bad.
Cramer said this trend is evident in the companies' stock prices, with Wal-Mart down 11% for the year, while Target has gained 16%. This is because people think things are getting better, said Cramer.
But Cramer said he's not a fan of either company, and feels that while Target may be a better choice now, rising gas prices make both retailers too risky.
Cramer told a viewer that he was concerned about
, but will do more research to see if the fundamentals have changed.
Cramer told another viewer that
is more of a copper play than a gold play. For gold, Cramer said he like the
SPDR Gold Shares
Cramer was bullish on
International Business Machines
He was bearish on
Check out the latest edition of
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At the time of publication, Cramer was long Wells Fargo, JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America.
Jim Cramer, host of the CNBC television program "Mad Money," is a Markets Commentator for TheStreet.com, Inc., and CNBC, and a director and co-founder of TheStreet.com. All opinions expressed by Mr. Cramer on "Mad Money" are his own and do not reflect the opinions of TheStreet.com or its affiliates, or CNBC, NBC UNIVERSAL or their parent company or affiliates. Mr. Cramer's opinions are based upon information he considers to be reliable, but neither TheStreet.com, nor CNBC, nor either of their affiliates and/or subsidiaries warrant its completeness or accuracy, and it should not be relied upon as such. Mr. Cramer's statements are based on his opinions at the time statements are made, and are subject to change without notice. No part of Mr. Cramer's compensation from CNBC or TheStreet.com is related to the specific opinions expressed by him on "Mad Money."
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