Playing the Trade-War Truce: Cramer's 'Mad Money' Recap (Monday 12/3/18)
TheStreet

After this weekend's big China news regarding trade, how should investors be looking at their portfolio? Jim Cramer told his Mad Money viewers Monday there are some obvious, and some not-so obvious ways to invest in this latest round of the tariff and trade wars.

To recap, president Trump essentially gave the Chinese another 90 days to come to the table with substantial changes to the way they do business. The problem is, it may be difficult for China to change. That's why Cramer said the easy win would be for China to place more orders for American agriculture products. That's why Deere & Company (DE) surged 4.7%. The same applies for machinery, with Cummins (CMI) , Boeing (BA) and Caterpillar (CAT) all obvious wins for the U.S.

There are some less obvious things China could do. Cramer said they could allow Mastercard (MA) , Visa (V) and American Express (AXP) to operate without Chinese partners. That would be a win for us at no cost to China.

Semiconductors could also be a big winner given the suggestion that the NXP Semiconductor (NXPI) acquisition could be back on the table. (To be sure, Qualcomm (QCOM) has said its effort to buy NXP won't be revived.)

Finally, Cramer said that apparel and retail could win in the trade deal, as everything from Apple  (AAPL)  to Nike (NKE) to Starbucks (SBUX) have sizable Chinese exposure.

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Executive Decision: Groupon

For his "Executive Decision" segment, Cramer sat back down with Rich Williams, CEO of Groupon (GRPN) , the online deals marketplace.

Williams said he wasn't happy with the company's performance last quarter, but said his team knows what challenges exist and has a plan to fix them. Groupon has incredible brand recognition, he said, but most people know the company for what they were and not what they are today, which is a site that has a great selection of items and experiences customers can take home immediately.

Williams added that most people don't even know that Groupon no longer requires an email address up front before you can browse their items. They are no longer focused on daily deals, but rather local items and events customers can buy right now. Searching and discovering has never been easier.

When asked how to measure his company, Williams said gross profit per customer is a key metric investors should keep their eye on. In his opinion, Groupon shares are "wildly undervalued" for the services they offer, Williams concluded.

Off The Charts

In a special edition of "Off The Charts", Cramer checked in with colleague Tim Collins to see why Monday's strong opening rally wasn't able to hold.

According to Collins, the stock of Caterpillar is a good proxy for the China trade, as the company does a lot of business in that country. He first looked at a three-year weekly chart of Cat, paying particular attention to the Chaikin Oscillator. He noted that metric foretold the rally in 2015 and appears to be doing so again.

Looking next at a daily chart of Caterpillar, Collins called out the classic "W" bottoming formation, which had a floor of support at $134 and its ceiling at $142 a share.

Cramer said he liked Cat's prospects going forward, but noted the stock is a high-risk, high-reward situation.

Rotation

Today the markets saw a rotation out of the recession stocks, but Cramer saw value in several names as they head lower. He said McDonalds (MCD) continues to restructure and its remodeling efforts continue to deliver results for shareholders.

Cramer was also bullish on Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) which has a number of great drugs in its impressive pipeline. He's also be a buyer of Coca-Cola (KO) , even preferring it over long-time fav Pepsico (PEP) .

Cramer also gave the nod to Clorox (CLX) , a stock he said is worth owning as it heads lower. The same applied to CVS Health (CVS) and Kimberly-Clark (KMB) , both of which rarely gives investors a good entry point.

Deal or No Deal

In a special interview, Cramer sat down with Howie Mandel, returning host of "Deal or No Deal," the game show which premieres tonight on CNBC.

Mandel recalled the very first contestant on Deal or No Deal, a women of modest means who has the chance to walk away with $40,000, enough to put a down payment on a home. The woman was spellbound by the possibility of winning $1 million, Mandel said, and ended up walking away with just $5,000.

It was as common theme, Mandel added, as contestant after contestant focused on the big prize rather than what was already in their hands. Most, he said, struggled to preform the simple math to determine the probability of a good deal, or the amount of taxes they'd owe on their winnings.

As the new season kicks off tonight, Mandel said there are some new twists in the show, including a chance to negotiate with the show's banker to get an even better deal.

Lightning Round

In the Lightning Round, Cramer was bullish on Harsco (HSC) , Nucor (NUE) , Exelon (EXC) , Hortonworks (HDP) , Coupa Software (COUP) and National Fuel Gas (NFG) .

Cramer was bearish on WestRock (WRK) .

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At the time of publication, Cramer's Action Alerts PLUS had no position in the stocks mentioned.