Don't underestimate the effects of trade on the stock market, Jim Cramer told his Mad Money viewers Monday. Remove the likelihood of a trade war, as we saw today, and stocks will soar, Cramer said, and not just the ones you'd think.
Investors have been fretting about the possibility of an all-out trade war with China for weeks, but if today's talks of a truce are for real, there will be a lot of winners, Cramer said. (Let's put aside for the moment the question of how long the truce will last.) Of course, the apparel and retail stocks will gain, but so, too, will the rails, with companies like Union Pacific (UNP) hauling a lot of freight from West Coast ports to the rest of the country.
But there are also a lot of uncovered gems that will benefit from more trade with China. Honeywell (HON) , for example, has China as its biggest contributor to earnings. United Technologies (UTX) ranks China as its biggest market for Otis elevators. Meanwhile, companies like 3M (MMM) , Emerson Electric (EMR) and even FedEx (FDX) all win with more goods flowing across borders.
Cramer said he wouldn't count out Starbucks (SBUX) , which is opening a new location in China every 15 hours, or Nike (NKE) or even Kimberly-Clark (KMB) , both of which sell a sizable amount of goods into China.
This rally has as much staying power as the truce, Cramer concluded. If you take the possibility of a trade war off the table, you put higher stock prices on the table.
Over on Real Money, Cramer says there are hints that U.S. companies may get direct access to Chinese markets. Get more of his insights with a free trial subscription to Real Money.
Executive Decision: International Flavors & Fragrances
For his "Executive Decision" segment, Cramer sat down with Andreas Fibig, chairman and CEO of International Flavors & Fragrances Inc. (IFF) , shares of which declined by 10% after it announced the acquisition of rival Frutarom for $7.1 billion.
Fibig explained that while the Frutarom deal will be initially dilutive to shareholders, it will quickly become accretive for several reasons. He said that while IFF has 3,000, mainly large, customers, Frutarom has a complimentary base of over 30,000 smaller ones. The company also has a complementary geographic footprint that will bring IFF to new parts of the globe.
Beyond those benefits, Fibig said that Frutarom is a leader in all-natural and so-called "clean label" additives that are very important to younger consumers. The cross-selling opportunities will be enormous, he added.
Cramer said he thought the reaction to the downside was overdone and reiterated his buy recommendation on this company.
Cramer and the AAP team talk about Cimarex (XEC) , Nordstrom (JWN) and PayPal (PYPL) . Find out what they're telling their investment club members and get in on the conversation with a free trial subscription to Action Alerts PLUS.
Executive Decision: Take-Two Interactive
In his second "Executive Decision" segment, Cramer sat down with Strauss Zelnick, chairman and CEO of Take-Two Interactive (TTWO) , the gaming giant with shares up 20% from their lows earlier this year.
Zelnick said the secret to Take-Two's success is well known, and that's making great titles that have staying power. Interactive games are the fastest-growing segment of entertainment, he said, and Take-Two is a big part of the trend.
When asked about the hottest game at the moment, Fortnite, Zelnick said he'd love to have every great title as his own, but that's simply not realistic. He said Fortnite is a terrific game that's catering to a lot of younger gamers and that's great for the whole industry over the long term.
Zelnick added that Grand Theft Auto, one of Take-two's longest-running franchises, just has another record year and they're looking forward to the upcoming release of the latest installment of their Red Dead franchise.
Take-Two is also returning capital to shareholders in the form of stock buybacks. Zelnick said they've recently bought $300 million worth of their own shares at an average price of $99 a share.
Finally, when asked about his conversation with President Trump, Zelnick said he hasn't said a lot about the specifics publicly, but said when you're asked to show up, you show up and be part of the conversation.
Executive Decision: Zillow
For his final "Executive Decision" segment, Cramer also sat down with Spencer Rascoff, CEO of Zillow (Z) , the online listing service that recently announced its intention to begin buying and selling homes though a service called Instant Offers.
Rascoff said that he sees Instant Offers as an extension of their existing services. He said consumer expectations are changing and people want to simply press a button and have magic happen, and that's what Instant Offers will do.
The service will provide homeowners with an Instant Offer for their home based on all of the information Zillow currently has on homes and home buyers in that area. Most customers likely won't accept the Instant Offer, Rascoff admitted, but that's OK, as they can then be handed off to a premiere real estate agent.
Zillow aims to sell the homes they buy in 90 days or less, Rascoff explained, a goal which should be feasible given the access to buyers that Zillow already has. They can begin to pre-sell a home before they even make the acquisition.
In his "No-Huddle Offense" segment, Cramer pondered whether today's rally was rational, given that we have no specifics on what a Chinese trade deal would look like and there's certainly no agreement in hand.
Cramer reiterated that this wasn't a rally based on agriculture or energy, as both of those industries are far too entrenched. Instead, he said today's relief rally was based solely on the notion that perhaps, just perhaps, U.S. companies could open up shop in China directly, without needing the current joint venture partnership that ultimately leads to the theft of U.S. intellectual property. If U.S. companies don't have to do deals, Cramer said, that would be a major win.
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