Here are the things Jim Cramer is worried about:
First, if the insider selling and the new-issue offerings and the endless SPAC issuances finally overwhelm the market with supply and deals go to a discount immediately, well, we will take more firm action. Yes, some SPACs have fallen to, and in some cases through, the $10 core, so to speak. The SEC's taking a look at them, but most IPOs are still going to a premium. And if you bought any of the secondaries out there, like the myriad of ones for the cruise ships, (CCL) - Get Report (RCL) - Get Report (NCLH) - Get Report well, you've made a lot of money. So I can't say that the issuance has overwhelmed the market at all like it did in 2000, 2001. Not at all. And to me, that's a sign of strength, not weakness. So, again, we have some wriggle room. That's what makes it so that it's not a perilous situation.
Second, if the 10-year goes to [2%], then we need to be concerned that it will, at last, be our competition to all the 3% stock yielders out there. And there are enough of them in the S&P 500 that you can see a decline in the indices of some substantiality. And don't forget, we're still far away from interest rates -- they're down again today. That's bringing in a lot of buying. But you could see a selloff if it goes to [2%.] That and the possibility that people read that the 10-year selloff is the beginning of a Fed rate increase cycle. [That will] more certainly cause the market to go lower, even as the first few rate hikes have historically not slain the bull. Doesn’t matter. In the end, we will sell stocks on rate-hike cycles, and that's because that's how I know what to do. A lot of what you're hearing is 40 years’ worth of debunking what others have told you.
Finally, and this is starting next week if your industry turns out to be so horrendous that we actually get downgrades based on forecast cuts, not valuation: I don't expect that to happen, OK, I really don't. In fact, given the environment, I expect them to be good. Still, given the run, you have to believe that there'll be individual analysts and strategists who are willing to say goodbye to this market because it's so expensive historically. I actually expect most companies, particularly both the large-cap techs and the industrials, to report good numbers, good enough for the stocks to stay in this range or even go higher. And the stocks of companies that trade in the off period, right now, last week, they're all pretty good. So it makes me again -- I'm not confident. I'm wary. But I’m not panicking. And I'm not scared.