All right. Ford. (F) - Get Report Ford is really interesting here. It should be ideal. I mean, ideal. It's got amazing cyclical qualities, right? Of course, and a big year because the small and medium-sized businesses are coming back, people buying cars because they moved out of town. It's got a secular electric-vehicle story that will be big in 2022. They're about to unveil the electric 150. My wife wants one. What the hell. It's managed to take out a gigantic amount of costs because in history, remember, it stopped selling cars where it was losing money.
It's legendary, but I've said that in the last few calls. You don't need to hear it again.
Here's what you do need. It has two problems: Commodities are skyrocketing. And it can't get the semis it needs.
The good news: People know the semi issue and it's coming back. Right now, the Japanese semiconductor companies: 100% now. If you want to talk about that. We're getting 100%, 60% from Taiwan Semi. (TSM) - Get Report So that's a bit much better than people think. OK, so it’s going to improve greatly in the second half.
The bad news: The prices of commodities -- plastic, steel, aluminum -- they've gone up so much in the last 60 days that I fear that Ford will take a big hit on them when it reports and have to guide down because of the price of steel.
Now, by the way, in preparation for this call, I looked at steel, got some quotes this morning. It's down a little. Some people feel it's peaked, it's a spike. I'm going to probably talk about that tonight, the commodities spike, on “Mad Money.” And I do think that there's hope plastic could come down as the plants come back online in the Gulf.
But you have to understand. While I think the semiconductor improvement is going to be upon us, the commodities drag? I think it’s going to cancel the positives about the semis. In other words, I think the stock stays in a holding pattern for better times. But if you didn’t own it you should buy it.