Jim Cramer Shares a Bad Buy on a Stock and How to Trade it Now

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I think the strength of the product this club offers is its analysis of my mistakes, not my so-called genius. That doesn't help, which is why I’d like to go right into the finger in my eye. Just right there. I want to talk about Eli Lilly.

We bought Eli Lilly in retrospect at the top. And we did badly. We did badly for you, we did badly for the troops. We screwed it up and we screwed it up because we had total confidence in the CEO, David Ricks, who came on “Mad Money” and pretty much said his company's Alzheimer's drug was going to show some amazing results that you wouldn't believe. Alzheimer's, the largest addressable market in the world, so I decided based on that conversation and the work I did away from Eli Lilly, of course, I decided to bet with Ricks, not against him. 

Ricks was wrong, very wrong. The data came out. And while one part of it, the part involving plaque reversal, was stunning, the evidence just wasn't conclusive enough. It wasn't in sync with what Ricks said. The stock's been straight down ever since. It is so painful. It was up 1 and change early this morning; of course, it’s now up less than $1. I suspect the sellers will come back.

Well, then you got to ask, why did we buy some stock yesterday? What was the point? It's simple. Because at this moment, Eli Lilly is almost back to where it was when people first started getting excited about Eli Lilly's Alzheimer's treatment. It's like you're getting that brain plaque reduction for free. And I want that brain plaque reduction and you should, too, if there's no side effects. Now, I think that buying it here is as good a bet as the bet at 207 was bad.

We know from a JPMorgan piece that came out yesterday that the physicians are more encouraged about the drug than Wall Street is, and they're the ones that will matter in the end. And on a personal note, on a personal note, I think Dave Ricks, the CEO, who has been a straight shooter with me all the way, including telling me when drugs might not pass regulatory muster, that he had. I don't think he's going to bag me. He would not bag me here.

This disease is so horrible that I think we all want to take this pill. Why not try to cut the risk of getting Alzheimer's or at least delay it? There have been whole companies based on no scripts that have gotten past the FDA, and people took the pills every day. Why not get brain plaque removed if there are no side effects?

And then you got to ask yourself: Why would Dave be so confident? Did I read him wrong? Absolutely not. Of that I am sure. So this Eli Lilly situation is now the kind I live for. No, of course, I didn’t want to battle the stock of Eli Lilly on the way down. I wanted to battle it when we were close to where we are paying almost nothing for the possibility that the drug works.

I would pay -- if there was no Alzheimer's drug, if they weren't even working on it -- I think that Eli Lilly is inexpensive at 183. Let me repeat that. If they didn't have an Alzheimer's drug, I would buy Eli Lilly because of its diabetes pipeline for $183. For its oncological pipeline.

So forget Alzheimer's. I'm pulling the trigger, Lilly, right here. It's that much of a bargain. Why should I have any say, given the fact that I screwed up at 207? Well, you know, what you do is you pick yourself up off the floor and you start doing.

Eli Lilly is a key holding in Jim Cramer's Action Alerts PLUS member club. Want to be alerted before Jim Cramer adds or removes stocks from his portfolio? Learn more now.

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