This column was originally published on RealMoney on Sept. 14 at 9:08 a.m. EDT. It's being republished as a bonus for TheStreet.com readers.
Credit Suisse gets it. It knows that the combination of
would be game, set and match for XM. Plus it recognizes that the Oprah channel, the decline in oil prices and the possibility of expectations being low translate to a conservative move to $17 for XM.
Throughout the research for XM, there's been a marked indifference to speculating on the billions of dollars that would be gained in synergy if one of these two companies would just admit some sort of defeat and go for the win of merging. The analysts all try to recommend these stocks on the fundamentals, which frankly can't be done because there are no fundies to speak of. There's just two companies slaughtering each other against a huge decline in terrestrial radio and the new ease of using MP3 players in cars.
Meanwhile, expectations for XM keep getting missed, which translates to pain for both XM and Sirius because Sirius can't make up the difference. They're always lumped together.
Now, with the fourth quarter being the traditionally strong quarter in this business and the companies finally adopting
UPOD -- underpromise, overdeliver -- you have a fighting chance in both to make some money.
I have liked both stocks since XM traded at $10. Time to step up, as I think a deal could happen.
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At the time of publication, Cramer had no positions in the stocks mentioned.
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