Let's talk Trump and Boeing. (BA) - Get Report Boeing: He's not a fan. It may just be a lack of knowledge or perhaps he thinks that they're way too close to China because that's where the orders are. I would regard a Biden win as huge for Boeing and it will come most likely at the same time that the [737 MAX] is certified and we open Chinese borders.
We own Boeing for a variety of reasons having nothing to do with China, but Boeing's a Biden stock for certain. He will do everything he can to get orders from China. [Senior Analyst Jeff Marks] and our Jim Marshall were just speaking about how we had to buy some Boeing. Like, I want to buy Boeing right here, right now. I mean, Boeing doesn't go down on the worst news. It will go up, say, like Caterpillar (CAT) - Get Report – 140.
I have Bristol-Myers. (BMY) - Get Report Well, that could be subject to the usual scrutiny that drug companies will be when Celgene’s Revlimid – remember, AbbVie (ABBV) - Get Report has Botox because they bought … they bought the whole franchise with Allergan. Bristol-Myers has Celgene and they bought Revlimid. They both face a pattern cliff. Bristol has a patent cliff but Celgene’s really got a patent cliff. But this drug trades like Biden has won already.
To me, the story here is … the new heart franchise that Bristol-Myers just picked up with MyoKardia. And that franchise looks very strong. Remember, a 60% chance that you don't need an ablation, which is an operation you don’t want to take. I like this story under either president, but Trump does make it a little easier to defend.
OK, Costco. (COST) - Get Report Costco has a special-dividend possibility in its pocket. And I think if Biden wins, the company might pull the trigger on it sooner rather than later, lest we get taxed at a higher level under the Biden regime. To me, that actually cuts in favor of Biden winning for his performance. The company has $30 a share in cash that it could dispense to us, and it’ll be in a hurry to do so if Biden is elected.
CVS: (CVS) - Get Report Heaven help me, I am so cynical about this that I think it does badly under either regime. In fact, though, as poorly as it has performed, it would do better under Trump because it needs corporate tax rates low and a laissez-faire approach to health issues. I think that Biden will be tough on the health insurers and demand that they eat some of the rising costs of health care, meaning that CVS’s Aetna purchase will be even worse than it is now.
I don't get CVS. It should be higher. At my old hedge fund, we would say this is the maiden that we have to throw into the volcano. We have to sacrifice the stock. Neither president's going to rein in Amazon, (AMZN) - Get Report which is, of course, their nemesis. Neither president's going to get prescription drugs to cost more. CVS goes lower with the Biden window. It's an enigma because there are not a lot of stocks in this market that sell at less than nine times earnings. It does drive me crazy. It deserves to be higher.