While gold has a clear roll to play for investors in a world dominated with global economic uncertainty, is it peaking?
The answer is "no." Global uncertainty will continue for the foreseeable future and the actions of central banks around the world, including the Federal Reserve, will continue to debase the value of the U.S. dollar, meaning gold will continue to be a strong investment for those seeking safety.
Gold serves as a high-quality, liquid asset to be used when selling other assets would cause losses. Central Banks of the world's largest long-term investment portfolios use gold to mitigate portfolio risk in this manner and have been net buyers of gold since 2010.
Investors should make use of gold's lack of correlation with other assets which makes it the best hedge against currency risk. There was a huge trend change in U.S. gold investment last May 2016. Switzerland is now a major source of U.S. gold exports. The tables turned back in May 2016 as the Swiss exported a record amount of gold to the United States. There has been a huge increase in gold flows into the Global Gold ETFs and funds. Something seriously changed in May 2016 as the Swiss exported more gold to the U.S. in one month than they have every year for several decades.
Meanwhile, considering events in Russia, Syria, Libya, North Korea, the South China Sea, Venezuela, social discord from Europe to the U.S., it is difficult to make the case for any good news. Gold will continue to perform its role as a safe haven in these times of crisis. The metal's surge of as much as 8.1% on the day of the Brexit vote last month is an indicator that its reputation for safety is undimmed in the current market.
Further, central banks around the world lowering interest rates (Bank of Japan, Bank of England, the latest) and the Fed keeping its rates low as well, there's no telling what the U.S. dollar will do. When Brexit happened, the British pound plunged and the dollar became a safe haven. Will that happen again? Or will dollar investors be stung?
Investors of all levels of experience are attracted to gold as a solid, tangible and long-term store of value that historically moved independently of other assets classes, even relatively stable ones like the dollar.
The list of prominent hedge fund managers backing gold is lengthening. Paul Singer, of Elliott Management Corporation, is the latest name to lend his support. It is likely that more investment institutions will turn to gold as the logical way to countervail the effects of many years of quantitative easing.
"It's a glaring warning sign of deflation. We've never really had deflationary fears throughout such a widespread part of the world before," said Phil Camporeale, a multi-asset specialist at JPMorgan Asset Management.
However, back in April 2016, if you would have followed my recommendation, you would have maintained known that once gold crossed the $1190 per ounce levels, it was destined to go higher. Above the downtrend line, which acted as a resistance from 2013 and onwards, the trend altered and it appears to be extremely highly unlikely that it will reverse downwards.
All that said, gold is currently in a correction. But this month, gold will surge much higher and surprise everyone. As you can see from the chart below, I am targeting 135 level on (GLD) - Get Report .
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This article is commentary by an independent contributor. Chris Vermeulen is full-time trader and research analyst for TheGoldAndOilGuy Newsletter.