Editor's note: This is Part 3 of Jim Cramer's review of the prospects for the stocks that make up the Dow 30. Be sure to read Part 1 and Part 2 and Part 4.
: CEO Mark Hurd is magical, but there's only so much magic in a company that really is a printer business with a PC-assembly game underneath. Hurd will provide better results than the $2.16 per share that people are looking for, maybe as much as $2.25, but I don't see people paying 20 times that; more like 16.
So the stock will inch up to $35, which is better than a sharp stick in the eye. H-P has spun off so many good businesses and sold so much good stuff that it actually needs to make some acquisitions to get the growth going.
That will happen, but not yet, because Hurd is still trying to rekindle the morale that was destroyed in the disastrous Carly Fiorina years.
: Can you say stalled? This company seems to get lost and get found over and over again. The stores are better run than they were, and the people less angry than they have been. The Expo stuff is now behind it, but I have to tell you, there simply isn't a lot of joy in going to a Home Depot store. I see encroachment from
everywhere and I don't see a big growth year for Home Depot, now that your home isn't leaping in price every month. Let's give the company its due and say it can earn $3. I don't believe many people will pay more than 16 times that, which puts it, conveniently, around $48. That's a nice gain, maybe even one worth having, but not exceptional.
: CEO Dave Cote is in a jam: He has to pull off a
this year, getting out of whatever is automotive or masking it with much bigger acquisitions than the gas-monitoring business he just purchased. Heck, he should buy Johnson Controls, or maybe
. Something has to give here, because I just don't see him able to make aerospace big enough, and I don't love defense anymore. I see a low-quality $2.50 in earnings and I see people paying $40 and change for it. Not enough to win the competition with
. Don't think that Cote won't sell the whole darned thing if a chance to do so materializes. What would be so wrong with a
merger, for example? Two challenged companies propping each other up? Why not?!?
: Will this be the year that Intel gets its mojo back? I believe it will be. Intel will have the plants and the demand, but it also has pesky
eating its lunch because the paranoids at the top are all retired or dead, I guess. Intel is a quandary, a not-expensive growth stock that needs to buy
but failed to do so when they were cheap. I'd pay 19 times the $1.65 I believe Intel can earn, and I can see the stock trading up to $31 -- I know, not exciting, but that's what happens when you make your bed with WiFi and let your darned opponent catch up to you in price and public relations. I miss former AMD CEO Jerry Sanders; he always could be counted on to mess up AMD when it most counted. Bring him back, and Intel goes to $40.
: IBM's got two IBMs: the hardware, which management doesn't seem to like; and the software, which management seems to like too much. I believe the company can earn up to $5.60 and can trade up to $95 for that, but not much more. This company really seems to be doing a lot right -- getting out of PCs, making a lot of niche acquisitions, but you know what? Nobody cares. We don't even like the part of the business they are emphasizing, consulting and software, with the multiples on both shrinking every year. I wish I had a prescription for these guys, but IBM is fighting one of the great headwinds for any company:
. It just isn't that relevant to this economy.
Johnson & Johnson
Johnson & Johnson
: Either way, we get this
( GDT) deal done and J&J goes back to getting some luster, which now only belongs to biotech and the three European companies everyone loves:
. You give J&J Novartis' multiple and you have yourself a $71 stock, which is, alas, where I believe J&J is going. Once the Guidant nonsense is out of the way -- and by the way, management should have stopped reading
The New York Times
and closed the darned deal, because all of these device companies have similarly "checkered" records -- the stock will start climbing toward my target.
: Jamie Dimon's a winner even as he has some serious heavy lifting to do. The new CEO needs to merge this bank with
and get some growth going. I still don't believe, though, that he has his arms around retail, which the company has starved for so long. With William Harrison out as CEO this year, Dimon can work some magic and he will, which is why I see the stock climbing to $48 on the back of $3.50 earnings power and expanding multiple. I don't believe people realize, though, how hard it will be for Dimon to streamline this operation. That's why I don't like it any more than
. Ah, in the end, it is just a bank.
: It's not easy to lose two of the best CEOs in one year, but that's what happened to Mickey D's. I just don't believe current management can muster much here, although I never believed that
could get to $55 on the back of dissidents and deck-chair shuffling. The simple truth is that even if I liked McDonald's, I know that
is the better buy. McDonald's can earn $2.20 but not get more than a 16 multiple for it. Frankly, it doesn't even deserve that multiple, because it really has less growth than just about all the other stocks in the Dow. By my calculations, this stock will be lucky to advance to $36 in 2006.
Be sure to read Be sure to read Part 1 and Part 2 and Part 4.
At the time of publication, Cramer was long Boeing, Intel, Qualcomm and Wells Fargo.
James J. Cramer is a director and co-founder of TheStreet.com. He contributes daily market commentary for TheStreet.com's sites and serves as an adviser to the company's CEO. Outside contributing columnists for TheStreet.com and RealMoney.com, including Cramer, may, from time to time, write about stocks in which they have a position. In such cases, appropriate disclosure is made. To see his personal portfolio and find out what trades Cramer will make before he makes them, sign up for
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