Investors have latched onto the notion of a booming U.S. economy and placed bets accordingly.
"On the heels of this morning's retail sales data we now estimate real GDP is expanding at a 4.0% annual rate in Q2, up from our prior estimate of 2.75% and almost twice the 2.2% growth rate experienced in Q1," points out JPMorgan Chase's chief U.S. economist Michael Feroli. "If realized, this would be the strongest growth quarter since 14Q3 and one that takes our full-year GDP estimate up to 2.8% (Q4/Q4, forecast table below)." Feroli characterizes the second quarter growth rate for the U.S. economy as "boomy."
Feroli lists several factors for the economic strength, but says consumer spending is the most notable. "The primary source of the acceleration in growth this quarter is the consumer, which looks to be expanding real outlays at a 3.7% rate in Q2 following an anemic 1.0% pace last quarter. We had looked for a rebound in Q2, as some temporary drags waned and the tax cut boosted disposable incomes. In any event, consumers wasted no time enjoying their tax windfall, as the Q2 saving rate looks like it will revisit the lows for the cycle."
The risk of this boomy growth Feroli discusses? What's shaping up to be a hawkish Federal Reserve under chair Jerome Powell.
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