Good luck with Netflix into earnings Monday.
I don't watch much scripted television. I do watch news shows almost constantly. I watch sports, or at least keep tabs on sports. Scripted TV? When I do indeed go there, like may modern day Americans, I rely upon streaming services such as Netflix (NFLX) . By the way, that Sam Elliot show, "The Ranch," Not too bad.
Netflix reports the firm's second quarter tonight. Consensus expectations are for EPS of $0.79 on revenue of $3.94 billion. The whispers are running about two cents above consensus, FYI.
TheStreet will be live blogging Netflix's second-quarter earnings after the close on Monday, July 16. Please check our home page then for more details.
In case you took your eye off the ball on Friday, Netflix gave up more than 17 clams on the session, or 4.28%. True, a nasty move on the day, with a close at $395.88. However, keep in mind that this name traded below $200 in early January. The catalyst for Friday's ugliness was a statement by Deutsche Bank analyst Bryan Kraft that "We don't see 2Q earnings as a positive catalyst for the stock."
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Netflix, if you'll recall, absolutely crushed subscriber growth expectations for the first quarter. That metric is precisely what traders will look at tonight. The industry looks broadly for the firm to have added something in the ballpark of 1.2 million new domestic subscribers and a rough 5 million globally.
Oddly, while Kraft spoke on the potential for a short-term pullback on the name, he re-iterated his "Buy" rating, as well as his $360 price target. Understand that Netflix closed on Thursday at $413.50. Sometimes you just have to read something twice, or maybe 10 to 20 times, because you just can't believe your eyes. I am flat this name. My most recent position was a poorly timed short earlier this year. Will I play this game? Most likely.
Still, as usual, when it comes to FANG stocks ---- Facebook (FB) , Amazon (AMZN) , Netflix (NFLX) and Alphabet/Google (GOOG) , (GOOGL) -- this will be a decision that I make about 45 seconds before the closing bell. (Amazon, Facebook and Alphabet are holdings in Action Alerts PLUS.)
On the options side, late Friday a July 20 395 Straddle would still run you more than $36 -- meaning that's how far the name would have to run from $395 for the purchaser of such a strategy just to break even. That is kind of a tough call to make. There will almost surely be extreme degradation in the value of those premiums by tomorrow.
You could end up with an event like October of 2017, when the name barely moved on earnings -- meaning that you lose on both ends of such a trade. If played, for me this will be an equity play and almost certainly smallish in nature. Frankly, I'm more fired up about the air show in London.
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