In large part due to its vehicles’ high technical capabilities, prestige and highly coveted design (buying one requires a two-year waitlist), Morgan Stanley projects that the Maranello, Italy-based company will come out as one of the biggest players in the electric car market by 2040.
Morgan Stanley assigned Ferrari a price target of $265 and predicts that the company will invest $13 billion in capex between 2022 and 2030. More than half of that is predicted to go toward improving its battery electric vehicles, a serious commitment that it believes is currently not reflected in its current price.
The current Ferrari BEV currently costs $330,000 per unit, a number that Morgan Stanley forecasts will go up to $500,000 by 2032 and just below $1 million by 2040. Assuming 24 times Ebitda on its fiscal year 2030 earnings, derived by impact, confidence and ease, and discounted back to the present at an 8 percent weight average cost of capital, the analysts believe they can justify almost 98% of the company’s enterprise value.
Without the ICE value from the company’s current share price, Ferrari is currently estimated to be worth less than $1 billion — a window that analyst Adam Jonas wrote “won’t be open for long.”
Going one step further, Morgan Stanley “we believe RACE may be one of the only remaining ICE vehicle producers two decades from now.”
Ferrari shares on Monday closed 1% higher at $239.74.