NEW YORK (TheStreet) -- Investors had been flocking into utility stocks, for the dividend yield, since the stock market lows of March 2009. I became concerned about the sustainability of the uptrend for the Dow Jones Utilities since July 30, when I wrote Consider Taking Profits on Utility Stocks .
On July 30, I profiled the
Utilities Select Sector SPDR
, which then had a dividend yield of 3.6% versus a yield of 1.553% on the
10-year note. Today the dividend yield on XLU is 3.49% and despite the QE3 initiatives announced by the
on Sept.12, the yield on the U.S. Treasury 10-year note is up to 1.691% this morning.
Third-quarter earnings reports have not been kind to utilities stocks as the pattern for the majority of power companies has been to miss on both earnings per share and on the revenue line.
On July 30
showed that the utilities sector was the most overvalued of the 16 sectors by 12.9%. Today the utilities sector is 7.2% overvalued and six of the 16 sectors are more overvalued than utilities. Today I profile eight utility stocks and all are down since July 30 and are below their 200-day simple moving averages.
This week we have seen the
Dow Jones Utility Average
( DJU) plunge below its 200-day SMA at 469.00, as shown on the chart below. Daily momentum has become oversold, but the weekly chart profile is negative. Dow utilities are down 0.5% year to date diverging from the 8.4% year to date gain for Dow industrials. My proprietary analytics does not show a nearby value level and my weekly, monthly and quarterly risky levels are 477.82, 498.29 and 499.85.
Chart Courtesy of Thomson/Reuters
Reading the Table
The stocks with a red number are undervalued by this percentage. Those with a black number are overvalued by that percentage according to ValuEngine.
A "1-engine" rating is a strong sell, a "2-engine" rating is a sell, a "3-engine" rating is a hold, a "4-engine" rating is a buy and a "5-engine" rating is a strong buy.
Last 12-Month Return (%):
Stocks with a red number declined by that percentage over the last twelve months. Stocks with a black number increased by that percentage.
Forecast 1-Year Return:
Stocks with a red number are projected to decline by that percentage over the next twelve months. Stocks with a black number in the table are projected to move higher by that percentage over the next twelve months.
The price at which to enter a GTC limit order to buy on weakness. The letters mean; W-weekly, M-monthly, Q-quarterly, S-semiannual and A-annual.
A level between a value level and risky level that should be a magnet during the time frame noted.
is the price at which to enter a GTC limit order to sell on strength.
($50.97 vs. $54.97 on July 30): Still has a buy rating according to ValuEngine with the stock below its 200-day SMA at $52.26. My semiannual value level is $41.17 with a weekly pivot at $52.04 and monthly risky level at $55.03.
($64.08 vs. $67.46 on July 30): Still has a buy rating and is below its 200-day SMA at $65.08. My quarterly value level lags at $42.39 with a weekly pivot at $64.77 and monthly risky level at $71.57.
($57.76 vs. $64.90 on July 30): Still has a buy rating with the stock below its 200-day SMA at $60.17. My annual value level is $55.89 with a weekly pivot at $58.86 and semiannual risky level at $61.82.
($66.90 vs. $72.59 on July 30): Still has a buy rating with the stock below its 200-day SMA at $68.07. My quarterly value level is $61.10 with a monthly risky level at $71.23.
($31.95 vs. $39.37 on July 30): Has a buy rating versus a hold rating back on July 30. The stock is below its 200-day SMA at $37.73. My semiannual value level lags at $16.16 with a weekly pivot at $34.29 and monthly risky levels at $35.50.
($43.20 vs. $50.45 on July 30): Still has a buy rating according to ValuEngine and is below its 200-day SMA at $45.82. My semiannual value level lags at $22.33 with my weekly risky level at $46.18.
PG & E
($41.91 vs. $46.11 on July 30): Still has a buy rating according to ValuEngine and is below its 200-day SMA at $43.44. I do not show a value level with a semiannual pivot at $41.12 and semiannual risky level at $45.76.
($44.14 vs. $48.42 on July 30): Still has a hold rating according to ValuEngine with the stock below its 200-day SMA at $45.78. My semiannual value level is $43.36 with an annual pivot at $44.66 and annual risky level at $46.37.
At the time of publication the author held no positions in any of the stocks mentioned.
This article is commentary by an independent contributor, separate from TheStreet's regular news coverage.
Richard Suttmeier has an engineering degree from Georgia Tech and a master of science from Brooklyn Poly. He began his career in the financial services industry in 1972 trading U.S. Treasury securities in the primary dealer community. In 1981 he formed the Government Bond Department at LF Rothschild and helped establish that firm as a primary dealer in 1986. Richard began writing market research in 1984 and held positions as market strategist at firms such as Smith Barney, William R Hough, Joseph Stevens, and Rightside Advisors. He joined
in 2008 producing newsletters covering the U.S. capital markets, and a universe of more than 7,000 stocks. Richard employs
and can be reached at