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Shares of Uber (UBER) - Get Uber Technologies, Inc. Report are up 2.5% to $30.40 in Monday morning trading after a positive analyst note.

Citigroup analysts raised their rating on Uber from neutral to buy. They also assigned a $45 price target -- the company's IPO price, by the way -- which implies about 50% upside from current levels.

The question now is, can Uber rally that far?

Shares just hit new all-time lows last week, as did Lyft (LYFT) - Get Lyft, Inc. Class A Report , which went public a little more than a month before Uber did in May. Both stocks have performed terribly since going public, down 37% and 47% from their IPO prices, respectively.

A glance at the charts tells us that Uber has plenty of work to do before getting back to its IPO price. It's below all of its major moving averages and continues to put in a series of lower highs and lower lows.

In short, the stock still has a very bearish overhang despite Monday's analyst-driven bounce. Let's look at the charts.

Trading Uber Stock

Daily chart of Uber stock.
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Can Uber stock get back to $45? Absolutely. But at the moment, it has a very difficult road ahead of it.

The current low sits at $28.31. With Monday's strong price action, it's possible that Uber stock will be able to secure a higher low. In other words, that would require Uber stock to avoid breaking to a new low below $28.31. If it can do that, it can start to, every so slightly, tilt the charts in a more bullish manner.

Uber stock also needs to reclaim a few other levels to start dealing some momentum to the bulls. That includes reclaiming the August low near $30.67, hurdling downtrend resistance (blue line) and reclaiming the 20-day moving average currently at $31.49.

This confluence of resistance may bat down Uber stock, which will give it the potential to secure a higher low. The alternative is that Uber stock gets a big gust of momentum, reclaiming these areas in rapid fashion.

Whether it happens quickly or takes a while, though, the larger tests will eventually come with the 50-day moving average and the $35.50 to $36 area. That $35.50 marks the 61.8% retracement, while $36 has proven its significance, most recently in August, as resistance.

So how do we trade it? Uber stock is a tough one to get long right here, with potential resistance right in its face. For aggressive bulls that go with it, though, see that it doesn't break its 52-week low. Below it could cause a further flush. 

Ultimately, I want to see the tides shift further in bulls' favor before taking a more serious look at Uber stock on the long side. There is simply too many bearish headwinds at the moment. 

This article is commentary by an independent contributor. At the time of publication, the author had no positions in the stocks mentioned.