Doug Kass shares his views every day on RealMoneyPro. Click here for a real-time look at his insights and musings.
The Good, the Bad and the Ugly
Originally published Sept. 16 at 12:34 p.m. EDT
"Such ingratitude, after all the times I saved your life."
-- Blondie, THE GOOD THE BAD THE UGLY
Let's run down the good, the bad and the ugly in Friday's market so far:
- Bonds are trading better Friday. The 10- and 30-year bond yields are down by 1-2 basis points. The 2s/10s spread has narrowed by 2 basis points to 93 basis points
- (TWTR) - Get Report is an upside standout
- (T)FANG higher
- Intel(INTC) - Get Report on a guide up
- continues weaker
- Insurance stocks off of the improving fixed income picture today
- Autos lower
- Consumer discretionary (e.g. (SBUX) - Get Report )
- Consumer staples (e.g. (KO) - Get Report )
- Gold is now challenging $1,300-$1,310 support, and I continue to see a breakdown through the support
Position: Long TWTR; Short F, GM, TLT, KO, NFLX (small), IYR (small), SBUX (small)
Placing CMG on My Best Ideas List
Originally published Sept. 16 at 11:25 a.m. EDT
Chipotle Mexican Grill's(CMG) - Get Report shares have declined all week after the announcement early this week that Bill Ackman's Pershing Square has taken a 10% position. The shares initially rose to over $444 and are now at $411.80.
I have steadily added to this (speculative) long on weakness. I do not shun in response to the last few days' underperformance; I look at this as an intermediate-term opportunity.
Here is my projected 12-month updated upside/downside:
Upside $525 (+27%)
Downside: $385 (-7%)
Here is my investment thesis.
This is a speculative long, from my perch.
Position: Long CMG.
Things That Are (Still) Moving Down
Originally published Sept. 15 at 12:18 p.m. EDT
Though the markets are broadly higher Friday, there are still many things that are declining in price:
- Taxable bonds continue their correction in price (and rise in yield).
- Selected consumer discretionary stocks like Disney(DIS) - Get Report and Starbucks(SBUX) - Get Report . (Both on my Best Ideas List, short).
- Monsanto (MON) - I don't think the deal will be accepted by regulatory authorities.
- Autos and auto-related.
Position: Short F, GM, SPY (small), DIS (small), SBUX (small)
Action Alerts PLUS, which Cramer co-manages as a charitable trust, is long SBUX.
At the time of publication, Kass and/or his funds were long/short XXX, although holdings can change at any time.
Doug Kass is the president of Seabreeze Partners Management Inc. Under no circumstances does this information represent a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security.