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Doug Kass shares his views every day on RealMoneyPro. Click here for a real-time look at his insights and musings.

The Four Tops?

Originally published Sept. 1 at 2:16 p.m. EDT

"Somebody shake me

Wake me somebody when it's over, when it's over

And tell me that I'm dreamin'

And wake me when it's over, when it's over."

-- The Four Tops, Shake Me, Wake Me

The one and only Levi Stubbs!

Question to our technically oriented contributors -- are we seeing the dreaded "Four Tops" in the S&P 500?

Position: Long SDS, Short SPY .

Time to Short REITs

Originally published Sept. 1 at 11:16 a.m. EDT

I recently told Bloomberg's Market Surveillance that I believe bond yields have likely hit a generational bottom, and that REITs are one place to short amid the slow-but-consistent rate rise that I expect.

Now, REITs have been a market favorite because of bond yields' greater-than-expected drop over the past several years. In fact, the iShares Dow Jones U.S. Real Estate ETF (IYR) - Get iShares U.S. Real Estate ETF Report has risen to around $82.09 a share as of I write this from just $66.27 on Feb. 11.

But it seems almost as clear as day that the bell has rung to short REITs. Not only do I believe that interest rates have likely begun a slow rise, but REITs are also about to get their own S&P 500 sector.

Anticipation of this move (the first addition of a new S&P 500 sector since 1999) has likely buoyed IYR over the past few months. But to this grizzly old bear, Standard & Poor's move could mark peak sentiment for REITs. IYR also has an historically elevated price-to-earnings ratio of about 9.0, as well as an historically low roughly 3.8% dividend yield.

Based on the above factors, I've recently begun accumulating an IYR short.

Position: Short IYR .

Fresh Signs of a Struggling U.S. Consumer

TheStreet Recommends

Originally published Sept. 1 at 10:42 a.m. EDT

I continue to contend that the U.S. economic outlook is deteriorating rather than improving relative to expectations, and that the much-heralded consumer "recovery" might soon fade.

The evidence out just this morning includes:

  • Weakness in both the Purchasing Managers Index and the ISM Manufacturing Index.
  • Falling oil prices, coupled with a number of other declining commodities.

Add it all up and I continue to expect no Federal Reserve rate hikes over the balance of 2016.

Position: None .

Twitter Looks Tweet This Morning

Originally published Sept. 1 at 8:02 a.m. EDT

Twitter (TWTR) - Get Twitter, Inc. Report rallied by nearly 5% yesterday on vague takeover rumors, and the shares are up another 1.8% in premarket trading this morning as I write this. I have no idea whether these rumors are true, but I put TWTR on my "Best Long Ideas" list a few months ago at about $14.60.

I did this partly on the possibility of a takeover deal, while we've subsequently gotten news that Twitter is finally moving more aggressively into live streaming and sports. The company's large subscriber base should provide a valuable launching pad for growth once this strategy kicks in.

Click here to read my recent investment thesis for going long on the stock.

Position: Long TWTR .

Action Alerts PLUS, which Cramer co-manages as a charitable trust, is long COST.

At the time of publication, Kass and/or his funds were long/short XXX, although holdings can change at any time.

Doug Kass is the president of Seabreeze Partners Management Inc. Under no circumstances does this information represent a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security.