So it really begins.
Netflix (NFLX) - Get Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) Report has been hit with a wave of Wall Street analyst downgrades into its earnings report on Monday evening. Keep in mind that this is the same thing that happened when Netflix reported first-quarter earnings -- the company went on to blow away Wall Street estimates and the stock went through the roof. TheStreet's tech columnist Eric Jhonsa has five things investors must know ahead of Netflix earnings. Jhonsa will be live-blogging analysis of the numbers after the close Monday, so stay tuned to TheStreet. TheStreet's Twitter feed @TheStreet also will have live analysis.
Veteran tech analyst Mark Mahaney is generally looking for in-line sales and earnings (which if happens, could lead to a violent stock selloff). But by no means will this be a weak quarter for Netflix.
From Mahaney's latest research: "55% of respondents watched Netflix [in the second quarter] (down vs. 60% in March but up vs. 53% in May '17), with a still significant lead over YouTube, Amazon (AMZN) - Get Amazon.com, Inc. Report & Hulu, all of which also dropped vs. March. b) Consistently Positive Satisfaction Trends: 68% of Netflix subs were "Extremely" or "Very Satisfied" - same as last four quarters 2) France & Germany Surveys - Netflix Is Taking Over Europe." For those Netflix bears out there, TheStreet's tech reporter Annie Gaus looks at whether we have reached Peak Netflix.
The Big Thought
Relax traders. We know Apple's (AAPL) - Get Apple Inc. (AAPL) Report stock has lagged the broader market over the past five sessions on trade war fears. But as TheStreet's founder Jim Cramer always has said, Apple isn't a trade -- it's a long-term investment. You think Apple's most legendary shareholder Warren Buffett is in the name to day-trade it? Nope.
To that end, some insightful research from RBC Capital Markets Apple analyst Amit Daryanani on Monday. Apple's push into services will go a long way to driving more predictable quarters, likely with stronger upside. It will also boost cash flow via recurring revenue that could be reinvested into buybacks, dividends and hopefully a few large acquisitions.
Wrote Daryanani: "By 2025, we could see (and arguably we are already seeing seeds of this) AAPL looking at iPhones as merely a means of expanding the install base with the real monetization being done via services. Services is on track to become a ~$50B business by 2020, and we think Apple eventually transforms from a device to a services company. While straight line projections are not how things unfold, if Services maintains a high-teens growth rate while non-services businesses grow at low-single-digits, we estimate that Services would constitute ~30% of AAPL's business (50%+ in profits) in 2025. Along the way, there would undoubtedly be speed bumps and risks like competition, disruption and regulations. But we also see ramp-ups through acquisitions and new business models."
Around Wall Street
Amazon Prime Day kicks off Monday afternoon. TheStreet's tech reporter Annie Gaus looks at whether Prime Day can push Amazon beyond $1 trillion market cap. Amazon's current market cap stands at $879 billion. The watch for Amazon $1 trillion before year-end (13% away) is on. In case you forgot: Amazon said in April it has more than 100 million Prime members.
TheStreet's senior banking reporter Bradley Keoun dove into the problems the banks are having navigating the Trump economy. Here is what Keoun saw in the results last week from JPMorgan Chase (JPM) - Get JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM) Report , Citigroup (C) - Get Citigroup Inc. Report and Wells Fargo (WFC) - Get Wells Fargo & Company Report , all of which you probably overlooked. As for Bank of America (BAC) - Get Bank of America Corp Report this morning, solid earnings beat but perhaps not enough to awaken sluggish trading in bank stocks.
Wrote Miller Tabak strategist Matt Maley: "The banking stocks continue to act very poorly ... and the SPDR S&P Bank ETF (KBE) - Get SPDR S&P Bank ETF Report is now down year to date (and the Financial Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLF) - Get Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund Report is back in correction territory). It's not just the yield curve that's holding back the group ... as global growth is slowing and European banks sit very near bear market territory. The action in the banking sector is a great example of why investors have to look beyond traditional fundamentals in today's markets." So there.