Trump's Obsession With Winning His China Trade War Could Pummel Investors - TheStreet

You probably have seen nothing yet.

And you thought Friday's positive session was a sign of a quick 1,000 points to the upside on the Dow Jones Industrial Average I:DJI this week. Silly, silly. Investors awoke from their sleeps on the beach (or yacht, if you're a big Wall Street player), to find Trump ratcheting up trade pressure on China. The Trump administration reportedly will unveil later this week a limit on international countries' ability to invest in the U.S. tech sector, citing national security concerns. Multiple reports also said the administration was drafting plans to introduce enhanced export controls to prevent American technology from heading off to China.

Stocks plunged on the news. But investors should probably brace for even more pressure on China by team Trump ahead of the mid-term elections. And by "brace" it means to position today for more short-term pressure on stocks.

Bets against (if not made already) companies with out-sized exposure to China, such as Starbucks (SBUX) - Get Report  , would make sense. Here is a list of 50 stocks most at risk of a trade war.

Pointed out TS Lombard strategist Christopher Granville: "Trump presumably sees this [pressure on China] as a case of cause and effect. The closer the election, the more attractive it may seem to come out with a victory declaration based on the concessions that China has already signaled - both on increasing imports from the U.S. and liberalizing the environment for U.S. investment in China, particularly as regards intellectual property protections. In addition to this display of keeping faith with his voters, this timing would also minimize the domestic economic losses from escalating trade tensions with China."

Stock Move of the Morning

Campbell Soup (CPB) - Get Report shares rocketed higher by 9.4% in Monday trading on a New York Post report that Kraft Heinz (KHC) - Get Report  was interested in buying the company. The report certainly isn't without merit. Campbell's long-time CEO recently resigned and the soup maker is mostly flying blind at the moment. Further, the company has one been one of the most disappointing packaged food companies around in terms of performance for at least five years.

As TheStreet's Ron Orol has reported though, any deal for Campbell has one major impediment: the 42% stake controlled by the family of John Dorrance, the one-time president and owner. Given Kraft Heinz's reputation for cost-cutting, striking a deal with a founder's descendants for a legacy brand won't be easy. But after sitting down with Kraft Heinz CEO Bernardo Hees earlier in the year, I can tell you this is a man on a mission. If he and his team want a target, they are going to do what it takes to get it done. Even if that means phoning a friend in Berkshire Hathaway's (BRK.A) - Get Report (BRK.B) - Get Report Warren Buffett for financial and goodwill backing.

A Kraft Heinz spokesman told me the company does not comment on rumor or speculation.   

Bits and Pieces

Add Visa (V) - Get Report to a growing list of U.S. companies looking to plant a flag in India. Mumbai-based payments player BillDesk is reportedly raising $250 million in a fresh funding around, valuing the company in the $1.5 billion to $2 billion range. Visa is reportedly leading the funding round. Walmart (WMT) - Get Report is fresh off plunking down $15 billion for a 75% stake in India delivery upstart Flipkart.

Keep an eye on the initial public offering market this week with markets under pressure. It will be fascinating to see how the market responds to several new issues. There are a dozen IPOs on tap this week, a feat not seen since June 2015, according to Bloomberg. BJ's Wholesale tops the list in size, as it strives to raise at least $638 million.  

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