The great chip race is on.
I have long been a supporter of both Intel (INTC) and Nvidia (NVDA) . I liked both of the CEOs running these firms. Jensen Huang, the man who could seemingly do no wrong, and Brian Krzanich, the leader who would finally give Intel shareholders something beyond the dividend to cheer about.
Both of these faves have come under pressure in June, as has the larger group. Intel for reasons other than trade, that I think we can all agree might have left fans of the stock in some state of shock. I have successfully traded around Nvidia's rises and falls (at least recently). As for Intel, I sort of got smacked in the teeth. Now, as many traders are indeed involved in both of these names, we must figure out where to dig in, or if there is to be continued wreckage.
Unfortunately, both of these names are highly exposed on the revenue side to China. For Intel, Chinese exposure runs at nearly 23%. For Nvidia, that slice still comes to more than 18%. Now, as Intel leadership is likely to be distracted by the firm's search for a new top dog, is there a chance for rivals such as Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) , and Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) to move in on what had previously been Intel's turf? In other words, if you are sitting on a large profit here -- or even if you are not -- is it time to cut and run?
There are two spots on this chart that scream at me to pay attention. With this name, I am running skinnier than usual, having taken some profits at higher levels. Here I am more likely to add, than to cut and run, but the whole Chinese exposure thing really has me dragging my feet.
The $246 spot serves as a wake-up call. That is where a 38.2% retracement of this past Spring's entire move intersects with the lower trend line of a December-through-present Pitchfork, and it intersects right here in late June. That spot cracks, and we likely look at $239. That is precisely where the base for the June highs was built in mid-May when that spot held on multiple attempts. At $239 is the true panic point for a trader protecting a much lower basis, as that is where the potential for a "Holy Moley" moment exists.
I do not intend to add at this time to this Action Alerts Plus name. I need to see visible support at either one of these spots in order to even consider increasing.
Here we have a more immediate problem, as we not only deal with negative publicity, but a high level of Chinese exposure. The first thing you'll see here is the failure of the Pitchfork model to hold last week. A negative looking MACD, Relative Strength indicator, and Chaikin Money Flow will also stare you in the face. This stock is trading in the overnight markets right now around that 50-day simple moving average ($51.22), which happens to be in the general vicinity of a 38.2% retracement of the 2018 range.
A crack here this morning could really be more than a crack, especially if the firm is slow to define competent leadership.
Speaking of slow, I have been slow to react to the news flow around this stock, as it had been one of my top performers for a solid year. My bad. That also means that I have something to protect and will have to act should this level fail. I will likely sell 50% of my stake on any sign of resistance at that 50-day line. My intent would be to buy it back later -- but honestly, not until the firm gives me a fundamental, instead of a technical, reason.