GAAP earnings of 74 cents per share came up two cents short of expectations, while revenue of $3.87 billion missed consensus expectations by $230 million. The latter grew roughly 30% year-over-year, likely helping investors shake off the miss to some degree.
Ordinarily a top- and bottom-line miss would send shares lower, especially for a homebuilder stock that's up more than 30% from its December lows. But thanks to a more upbeat outlook -- with Executive Chairman Stuart Miller saying buyer interest is improving amid a "stabilizing housing market" -- Lennar stock is moving higher.
Let's take a look.
Trading Lennar Stock
When a stock rallies on seemingly bad news, that could pave the way for more upside. In the case of Lennar stock, the share price is promising for bulls. Even before earnings, Lennar was holding up over all of its major moving averages and was hovering just below $50.
Bulls really want to see Lennar stock hold $50 now. Above and perhaps we can see a run up to $56, provided the stock can get through the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level near $54. If it can hit the former, it would represent about 10% upside from current levels. While that may seem like a big run, keep in mind this stock has a 52-week high of $64.90.
That said, this was a mixed report and it's possible that investors decide it's not worth owning. Should $50 not hold as support, $47 becomes key. The 50-day and 200-day moving averages are both at $47.25, while uptrend support is just below. There's also the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement near $47.50. In short, this is a big area for Lennar stock.
If it were to lose this level, it would drop the name into no man's land and we'd have to wait to see which levels would step in as support.
Lennar's action is giving a lift to names like D.R. Horton (DHI) - Get D.R. Horton Inc. Report , PulteGroup (PHM) - Get PulteGroup Inc. Report and Toll Brothers (TOL) - Get Toll Brothers Inc. Report as well. As RealMoney's Kevin Curran points out Wednesday morning from Lennar's Miller, "'We continue to believe that the basic underlying housing market fundamentals of low unemployment, higher wages and low inventory levels remain favorable.'" That's likely giving the group its lift.
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This article is commentary by an independent contributor. At the time of publication, the author had no positions in the stocks mentioned.