Sharp inflation measures aren’t helping as they once were for bitcoin and others. Plus, there’s a sense of worry, some of it perhaps stemming from bitcoin’s one-day peak-to-trough decline of 22% on Dec. 4.
The overall tone on Wall Street has been a marked shift away from so-called risk-on assets. That’s clear, as bitcoin has now fallen for five straight weeks.
Yet sentiment is all over the map. On the one hand, one-third of surveyed Americans say bitcoin will hit $100,000 by the end of 2022.
On the other hand, some economists say bitcoin may not “last much longer.”
That's a yawning divide. Interestingly, about 90% of all bitcoins have already been mined, which could give the cryptocurrency some momentum.
Bitcoin has made a series of what I call “shelves” on the daily chart.
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Notice that each sudden drop in bitcoin prices led to some sort of bearish consolidation -- a shelf -- before a move yet lower.
In November, it was a series of lower highs and lower lows. Currently, bitcoin is forming a descending triangle, identified by higher lows and a static level of support.
That support level comes into play near $46,000 and near the 200-day and 10-month moving averages. It’s worth pointing out that bitcoin at this moment is failing to hold the 200-day moving average.
If bitcoin breaks lower and loses $45,000, it’s entirely possible that it visits the $40,000 to $41,000 area, where the cryptocurrency finds the low from earlier this month.
For this pattern to stop, bulls need to see bitcoin push through downtrend resistance (blue line) and end the series of lower highs. Back above the 10-day and 200-day moving averages would also be a positive.
That would put the 21-day moving average in play, along with the key $50,000 level.
Bitcoin is in a weird spot. It’s not necessarily rolling over, but the charts don’t look all that bullish. That changes if bitcoin can clean up its act.
Otherwise, investors are best off taking a guarded approach.