Updated from 6:13 a.m. EST
Last week was yet another crazy week, with the equity markets swinging 200 points almost daily.
Rockwell Automation Rises on $2.2 Billion Deal for Plex Systems
Rockwell Automation agreed to buy Plex Systems, a manufacturing-software platform, for $2.2 billion from the private-equity firm Francisco Partners.
has not done its job when it comes to easing the market's credit concerns. And with Libor creeping back up, additional credit worries are certainly valid. The continued backwardation in Libor rates may lead to additional selling in the financial stocks, so I would not yet try to bottom-fish there.
However, all of this doesn't matter even if the market has a disastrous week. Out of the 8,000 public companies, history shows that at least 1,000 to 2,000 stocks are likely to climb. It's our job to try to find those stocks most likely to do so.
are primarily based around potential snapbacks playas as well as a few potential short-squeezes.
last week's rocket stocks column
, I focused on a variety of picks in different sectors. Let's see how they fared in last week's rough market.
- Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) - Get Report: Up as much as 7.7% but ending the week with a 4.7% gain.
- Apple (AAPL) - Get Report: Rose 3.3% to hit a new 52-week high of $200 on Friday but ended the week down 1.7%.
- Lehman( LEH): Up as much as 3.5% but finished the week down 2.8%.
- Cypress Semiconductor (CY) - Get Report: Down 2.6%.
- State Street (STT) - Get Report: Down 2.6%.
- Eaton (ETN) - Get Report: Down 4.9%.
- Costco (COST) - Get Report: Down 5.5%.
- Yamana Gold (AUY) - Get Report: Down 7%.
- Meritage Homes (MTH) - Get Report: Up as much as 4.5% but ending the week down 8.5%.
- Kroger (KR) - Get Report: Down 8.5%.
Now let's look at
First up this week is
Sirius Satellite Radio
. There finally may be light at the end of the tunnel for Sirius and
( XMSR) shareholders. Last week a bullish analyst report suggested that a decision from the Department of Justice is likely to be favorable toward the merger of the two rival companies.
And while there is no official date for the DOJ's decision, a ruling may be imminent. Recently, Sirius CFO David Frear stated that the DOJ has "little left to do" to complete its review of the merger.
Here are some quick bullish points on the merger:
1) Both companies have natural synergetic ties in their advertising and business models. This should help decrease costs and increase margins, which will untimely go to the combined company's bottom line. The ability for customers to flip between sports shows, comedy and political conversations will be a huge plus.
2) Both management teams will now be able to focus on transforming and integrating paid advertising into their service. Working as one company should make advertisers interested in adding more time slots. While these ad spaces will have higher price points, advertisers likely will be willing to spend more as long as a greater number of listeners hear their ads.
3) Sirius has 772 pemployees, and XM employs 860. Once the merger is approved, I believe we could see as much as half of the total workforce let go. Only the most productive/essential employees will remain, and these employees will be given large blocks of shares in the new company as additional motivation.
4) Increased installation will help as the automakers will find it a lot easier to offer satellite-radio subscription to new customers. A few weeks ago,
and Sirius announced that they are targeting a 70% installation rate for the automaker's Mercury models. This is a very high number considering the penetration that Mercury has.
owns a small stake in both Sirius and XM. Soros currently owns 1.21 million shares of Sirius and roughly 105,000 shares of XM. While this is a very small position for Soros, he has been known to specialize in these turnaround stories and may offer some key advice for both companies.
Next up this week is
( ESLR). After the close on Thursday, Evergreen announced that it had struck a 10-year polysilicon supply deal with a French company. With polysilicon a scarce commodity right now, this deal shows that Evergreen's management is working hard to get the best prices possible.
Evergreen also has 20% of its shares sold short, which could fuel its rally even more. Despite a massive rally in
, Evergreen now seems cheaper based on forward earnings projections and growth/market size expedition.
With the cold weather here, I like
, which designs and sells outdoor apparel, including outerwear, sportswear and footwear.
The stock has a P/E of 12, a PEG of 1.1, and a yield of 1.4%. The fact that the stock is trading near its 52-week low seems ridiculous. With about $3.50 in cash per share and virtually no debt, the price multiples are around 11 times the past year's earnings.
Current year cash flow for Columbia is at $4.50; and with approximate growth of 7% to 8% for the next 10 years and perpetual growth at 5%, this stock appears poised to run.
Also worth looking at is
( TBL), which despite all of the problems this company has had (witness its lowered guidance), the fact of the matter is that people tend to wear the types of shoes this company makes as the weather gets worse.
At current levels, I am not sure how much downside there is to share price. Also,
, which has unsuccessfully tried to enter the boot market, may be interested in the company.
For more detailed analysis and the rest of this week's picks, check out the
As always, to find the snapbacks and potential breakouts on a regular basis, check out these Stockpickr portfolios, which I use in my own research each week:
- Today's Hot List: This daily list is a must-view every midday to see what stocks are making the biggest moves and why.
- Always check the Biggest Percentage Losers, a list of stocks that lost big the day before, because they can snap back hard. When you check this list on Stockpickr, you can see which stocks are owned by the quality hedge funds and mutual funds. Pay attention to those. They will be buying at the lower prices, so you should be also.
- Ditto for the 52-week-low list. You must check the above two lists every day if you hope to find volatile stocks.
- Biotech Short Squeezes: Dendreon (DNDN) and others can often be found in this category.
- Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume: These are potential breakout stocks.
- Stockpickr's System Trades of the Day: These are trades triggering that day in various backtested trading systems we've developed.
- Stocks With Unusual Option Activity: Perhaps someone knows something?
- Latest Activist Situations: These are beaten-down stocks that hedge funds are accumulating shares of and demanding change in. Believe me, these hedge funds piggyback each other. And once they start rocking the boat, things happen quickly. This should be on your must-view list.
One final place to frequent is the
section on Stockpickr, where ideas such as those presented in this article are thrown around daily.
At the time of publication, Altucher and/or his fund had no positions in stocks mentioned, although positions may change at any time.
James Altucher is president of Stockpickr LLC, a wholly owned subsidiary of TheStreet.com and part of its network of Web properties, and a managing partner at Formula Capital, an alternative asset management firm that runs a fund of hedge funds. He is also a weekly columnist for
The Financial Times
and the author of
Trade Like a Hedge Fund
Trade Like Warren Buffett
. Under no circumstances does the information in this column represent a recommendation to buy or sell stocks. Altucher appreciates your feedback;
to send him an email.
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