This column was originally published on RealMoney on Oct. 13 at 8:51 a.m. EDT. It's being republished as a bonus for TheStreet.com readers.
Tech works. It works seasonally. It even works in earnings, even as it will be uneven.
I never outthink this period.
killing 'em. So is
. If you don't like
here, something's wrong. I think
is having a monster quarter and would be up more if it weren't for this bugging stuff.
How good are things? I think that
will do well, and that's saying something. I think that a lot of the bad news -- and there will be bad news -- in a
moved up, but there is more ahead.
One thing I think people must know is that the valuations in tech are so low that you won't just get a pop. This isn't like the valuations in the
. You have companies growing much faster than the staples with lower multiples. That means you are going to see some levitation, and you have to be ready for it.
The hedge funds are still negatively positioned in the semis. There's still a lot of disbelief in the big theses: strong cell phones, PCs -- yeah, isn't that something? -- big-screen TVs and video games. Home theaters are chockablock with tech!
The tough question is, will people overlook any weakness? Take the
merger. That has frozen tech spending for now. So the
bandwidth shortage that I have articulated -- and YouTube is a bandwidth monster -- will look like it is pausing a bit. That will be a false tell.
be spending, but it is still a tad ahead.
I think that we are in a forgiving mode for tech and you can pretty much buy anything. But if you are fearful, buy the stuff that has already reported good results, the Oracles and the Ciscos.
For me, it is the
and the Hewlett-Packards that are more exciting.
Don't turn up your nose at the
deal. It's worth picking up.
At the time of publication, Cramer was long Hewlett-Packard.
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