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Tim Collins: AMC’s No Investment, But It Could Be a Trade

Darling of the meme-stock crowd has pulled back sharply in recent weeks
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Through no fault of its own AMC Entertainment Holding  (AMC) - Get AMC Entertainment Holdings, Inc. Report has become one of the meme stocks. A legacy company, they got battered by the pandemic (turns out mass quarantines did not help the business of sitting next to strangers for hours on end). Then the gamblers and market manipulators over at r/wallstreetbets got their hands on AMC’s stock and the rest is very weird and recent history.

Now, Tim Collins thinks something might be about to happen.

“Ironically, it seems every time the SEC makes a knock against meme stocks, it rallies their supporters,” Collins wrote recently on Real Money. “That won't last forever, and I have no idea when it will end; however, combining that news along with the current chart pattern has me thinking volatility.”

Since hitting highs early in September, AMC has been “trickling lower to the tune of nearly 25% off the highs. This has really been a round trip since the August breakout. We can spot a nice trend line of support going back nearly two months. It might not be as strong as it appears, given all the white space above the trend line over the past month; however, it is also in line with the 50-day simple moving average (SMA), so it can't be dismissed. That SMA helps alleviate the slight weakness of the support area.”

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He adds that “The oversold nature of the Full Stochastic and MACD indicator, both of which appear ready to cross bullish, plus the bullish parabolic stop-and-reverse (PSAR) create an interesting bounce candidate here. Now, if you are looking long, a close under $38 looks like a clear stop to me. The gap fill to $44 appears to be the upside target. A close over $45 should return us to $50 while a close under $38 should take us into the $32 to $34 range.”

But Collins is clear: this is pure trading, not investment. The technical indicators for AMC show that the market may be ready to put some money back into the stock, so there might be an opportunity for shorter term players to buy in. Maybe. At least, Collins writes, if the stock starts to tick back up traders can probably expect it to keep going up for a little while.

There’s no business-based upside here though.

“On a fundamental basis, there's really nothing here for me. Accepting Dogecoin is pandering to the crowd in an attempt to win back meme traders. It's not as though there is an uproar of demand with people standing in front of the box office demanding to pay in Dogecoin.”

Memes are still going to meme and AMC might not be a good investment, but it might be a good trade.