What Tesla Stock's Wild Price Action Means for Investors: Chart
Tesla employees celebrate hitting the self-imposed 5,000-a-week Model 3 milestone. Source: Tesla Inc.

Shares of Tesla Inc. (TSLA) are on a wild ride Monday, down around 3% Monday afternoon after starting the session up more than 5% in the pre-market.

Tesla's buoyant price action this morning came after the firm released its second-quarter vehicle production and delivery numbers, meeting its goal to reach production of more than 5,000 Model 3 vehicles a week by the end of the second quarter. The firm expects to hit 6,000 Model 3s a week by the end of July.

Shares came under pressure shortly after the open after CFRA analyst Efraim Levy said that the production rates Tesla hit weren't sustainable, and downgraded the stock to a "sell" rating.

So, who's right in the battle between the bulls and bears? To try and figure out Tesla's likely price trajectory from here, we're turning to the charts for a technical look at who's in control of shares.

Here's where today's price action puts Tesla's stock price:

There are two key patterns in the chart above: The shallow downtrend (dashed in red) that Tesla spent much of the last year stuck within, and the ascending triangle breakout that propelled shares out of said downtrend.

While Tesla is correcting at this point Monday, the correction is only bringing shares back down to newfound support at the top of this stock's prior downtrend. In other words, the downward pressure on this stock's price isn't material to Tesla's recent rally.

As long as Tesla continues to spend most of its time above the upper dashed red line, it's in breakout territory.

That's important in the context of the long-term trend:

The dashed red lines on the weekly Tesla chart above correspond to the ones on the shorter-term chart. Long-term Tesla's uptrend is extremely well-defined. Shares have caught a bid on every test of trend-line support along the way -- and that suggests more upside is ahead for investors willing to stomach the back and forth between buyers and sellers in the long run.

Relative strength, the indicator down at the bottom of Tesla's long-term chart, adds some extra confidence to the upside trade here. Tesla's relative strength line is holding onto its uptrend since mid-2013, signaling that Tesla continues to systematically outperform the rest of the broad market on a very long-term time frame.

Tesla may not be reacting to Q2 production numbers the way bulls had hoped, but the technical picture hasn't changed here.

This article is commentary by an independent contributor. At the time of publication, the author held no positions in the stocks mentioned.

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