That translates into an expectation by Goldman that the stock, currently at about $322, has about a one-third downside over the next year.
Goldman's David Tamberrino noted potential delays in rolling out the firm's Model 3 and said that he believes Tesla will miss targeted production rates. Tamberrino cut his full-year 2017 EPS estimate to a loss of $2.53 from a previous 30 cents a share loss target.
He also sharply cut his estimates for 2018 - to a 69 cents a share profit from a previous $$2.59, and his 2019 outlook is now for $5.14 a share, a bit lighter than his earlier expectation of $5.95.
Tesla's acquisition of Solar City appears to have masked a decline in the company's power storage business, according to the company's latest 10-Q filing.
Tesla reported that energy generation and storage revenue rose $191.2 million, or 841% in the quarter ended March 31, compared with the same period a year earlier.
Tesla shares fell $2.12, or 0.7% to $323.10 on Thursday.
However, "this was primarily due to the inclusion of revenue from SolarCity, which we acquired on November 21, 2016, of $208.7 million, partially offset by a decrease in energy storage revenue of $17.4 million," the company said in its filing.
That's a far less rosy situation than was forecast by CEO Elon Musk in August 2015, on the company's second-quarter earnings call shortly after Tesla introduced its Powerwall and Powerpack products for residential and commercial customers.
—Tom Bemis contributed to this report.