New Street Research raised its price target on Tesla (TSLA) from $530 to $800 on Tuesday morning, citing the electric vehicle maker’s technology dominance, strong demand for its premium cars and overall execution.
Shares of Tesla were rising 6.4% to $543.00 on Tuesday in late morning trading, putting its market cap at $98 billion. Tesla shares have risen a whopping 30% so far in 2020 alone.
New Street’s lead Tesla analyst, Pierre Ferragu, noted that he initiated coverage of Tesla in May 2018 with a $530 price target and that over that time, the main points in his thesis had been validated. Specifically, Tesla achieved 40% improvements in cost, range and performance over the past seven years, according to Ferragu, and the Model 3 is taking share in the premium vehicle market. Ferragu believes that as consumers trade up to Tesla’s premium vehicles, the company's ultimate addressable market is around 20 million units, leaving plenty of room for growth.
“We stick to our views and expect Tesla to sell 2-3 million cars per year after 2025, at industry leading margins, justifying a market capitalization of $230-350 billion, or ~$1,100-1,700 per share,” Ferragu wrote. Discounting that back to early 2021 yields a stock in the $640-$960 range, justifying the increase in the price target, which represents about 56% upside to Tesla's current share price.
Separately, AllianceBernstein expressed caution about Tesla’s share price following its massive run-up recently, also in a note on Tuesday.
Analyst Toni Sacconaghi, Jr. held his market perform and $325 stock price target on Tesla, representing 36% downside. He noted that its stock has doubled in the last 6 months and said a historical screen has show that it’s rare, but not unprecedented, to see a large cap stock double in 6 months. Following these periods of significant outperformance, large caps that doubled in the last 6 months subsequently gained just 2.6% in the following six months on average, according to Sacconaghi.
“We note expectations for TSLA appear to be rising materially, while we remain cautious on the Shanghai Gigafactory ramp dragging down margins in Q4 and Q1, seasonal softness affecting Q1 demand following subsidy eliminations in the U.S. and the Netherlands, and the potential for Model 3 cannibalization as Model Y ramps,” Sacconaghi wrote.
Tesla is expected to report quarterly earnings on Jan. 29 after the close.