Doug Kass shares his views every day on RealMoneyPro. Click here for a real-time look at his insights and musings.
Takeaways and Observations
Originally published April 10 at 4:36 p.m. EST
"Doug Kass wrote an article today about how he fears the lack of fear in this market. I agree with Doug that lack of fear is an issue, but it goes further than that. What this market has missed for quite some time is strong emotion. There may not be much fear, but there isn't much euphoria either. I can't recall the last time market players were celebrating the action like they did at times prior to the Great Recession of 2008-09. There is no high-fiving and celebration. In fact, bulls are more likely to grumble about being underinvested and being in the wrong stocks than they are to talk about how the indices are at new highs.."
- Rev Shark, Yes, Market Lacks Fear, but There's No Emotion Either
Several columns from me on the same theme:
* I Fear the Absence of Fear of Loss
* More Wall Street Nonsense on Display
* Thinking and Trading Opportunistically on the Short Side
Trade of the Week--Long a current fave-- Allergan(AGN) - Get Report ! Goldman issued some sweet talk on the name this morning.
A positions update after my prime broker changeover.
A Reminder Why Telsa Doesn't Turn My Crank!
On the market, I remain unimpressed. While the BOTDers are clearly still around, they have been unable to mount a sustainable rally over the last week or two.
I should be shorter than I am, but I want to remain more disciplined in waiting for the market to give me a green light on the short side--so I am less anticipatory!
* The US Dollar weakened today.
* The price of crude oil rose by +$0.76 to $53/barrel.
* Gold lost -$2.
* Ag commodities: wheat +4, corn +7, soybeans flat and oats -1.
* Lumber -$4.40.
* Bonds rallied in price, declining by about one basis point. The 10-year US note closed at 2.366%. I shorted more TLT at $121.40.
* The 2s/10s curve was flat on the day.
* Municipals caught a small bid.
* Banks, however were lower again. Thursday is a key day for the money center profit reports--my guess is they are a penny or two better than consensus and that the stocks have discounted the reports and could
be vulnerable to profit taking. I am a short seller on any eps induced strength later in the week.
* Insurance stocks rose modestly, Hartford Financial Services(HIG) - Get Report is starting to turn back up (+$0.40). I am a short seller in Metlife(MET) - Get Report and Lincoln National(LNC) - Get Report on a 3% or more rally.
* Autos caught a small bid after recent underperformance and EPS downgrades. Value traps, still!
* Retail continues to rally-- JCPenney(JCP) - Get ReportHome Depot(HD) - Get ReportNordstrom(JWN) - Get ReportTarget(TGT) - Get Report and Kohl's(KSS) - Get Report upside leaders as BAT disappears into the background.
* Biotech was dead flat. There was some pressure on spec biotech on Monday. (AERI, SAGE, etc.)
* Old tech was weaker.
Here are some value added contributions on our site today:
1. Jim "El Capitan" Cramer on up, up and away.
2. Ben "Goldfinger" Cross explains why gold wont swoon.
3. RevShark on an emotionless market -- addressing my " Lack of Fear" post this morning. His is a good one -- and discusses emotion, in a broader sense. Rev doesnt think a market lacking fear is a negative or contrary to contend with. By contrast, I believe it's a measure of complacency -- we need not be euphoric to be complacent. Weigh both arguments and pick a side!
4. Oil Vey from Dan Dicker.
Position: LONG CPB large, HIG large, AGN large, SDS, SQQQ; SHORT DIS small, CAT small, AAPL small.
The Good, the Bad and the Ugly
Originally published April 11 at 2:05 p.m. EST
"It's not a joke, it's a rope, Tuco. Now I want you to get up there and put your head in that noose. --Blondie, " The Good, the Bad and the Ugly"
So let's move to the abbreviated Monarch Notes form of "Takeaways, " with "The Good, The Bad and The Ugly."
* Thus far, the "flight to safety" trades worked today--bonds, bond equivalent stocks, yen/dollar, gold.
* The market brought in dip buyers--though I am not sure it will last today.
* Lumber +$10 - an outsized move.
* Thus far, though down modestly, (T)FANG remains the place to be.
* Seagate Technology(STX) - Get Report and Western Digital(WDC) - Get Report +.
* The opposite of " flight to safety" trades didn't work today - financials, industrials.
* Despite better fixed income, high yield was offered.
* New lows in "value trap" auto OEMs.
* Biotech not so hot with Celgene(CELG) - Get Report , Gilead(GILD) - Get Report , Allergan(AGN) - Get Report lower. But speculative biotech was worse-- SAGE Therapeutics(SAGE) - Get Report , Intrexon (XON) - Get Report , and Valeant Pharmaceuticals (VRX) weaker.
* Optical space lower on China and Apple fears. If you own the smaller ones for takeover--I would reconsider for now.
* Alliance Data Systems(ADS) - Get Report , Mallinckrodt(MNK) - Get Report , Royal Caribbean Cruises(RCL) - Get Report , United Continental(UAL) - Get Report , Micron Technology(MU) - Get Report and Franklin Resources(BEN) - Get Report all weak.
Position: Short AAPL small .
Action Alerts PLUS, which Cramer manages as a charitable trust, is long AAPL, WDC and AGN.