Workday (WDAY) - Get Report was falling in premarket trading Monday after shares of the enterprise cloud application provider were downgraded to equal weight from overweight at Morgan Stanley and the price target was lowered to $180 from $219.
Workday was down 1.74% to $163.09.
Morgan Stanley's bearish turn comes after management commentary from Workday's analyst day that highlighted the company's own expectations that its core human capital management business will slow to 20% year-over-year growth.
"While strong positioning in large end markets, continued expansion of the solution portfolio and a growing distribution channel should sustain strong top-line growth longer term," Morgan Stanley analyst Keith Weiss said. "A steeper deceleration in the core HCM business and the prospect of a more difficult software spending environment in CY20 lead us to trim our near-term growth forecasts and price
More than 80% of Workday's subscription revenue comes from the company's HCM portfolio, and the durability of the growth in that segment is calling into question the company's overall trajectory.
"Our recent rounds of partner checks over the past few months indicate a mixed view on the growth trajectory of Workday over the next year," Weiss wrote. "Partners highlight a relatively strong pipeline heading into FY21; however, growth rates are decelerating given that much of their business are add-on modules/customizations and not net-new customers."
Morgan Stanley's subscription revenue estimates are now lower than consensus by 1.1% to 2.1%. The firm also decreased its the free cash flow multiple it applied to fiscal year 2025 to 28x from 34x previously.
Workday shares have risen just 3% year to date after falling sharply since July.