A market surprise.
First thought as the Cohen and Manafort decisions hit the wires Tuesday afternoon: Wednesday will be the first day in the end of the record-setting bull market run. Hard not think like that seeing as the market tanked into the close and now the president is increasingly in hot water.
But something interesting happened in the moments since the decisions hit the wires: stocks globally didn't fall apart and U.S. futures have started to come back. Perhaps, it's not good to read too much into the tape in a span of 12 hours, but it's telling. It's telling as to where the minds of investors are right now: squarely on the corporate profit outlook and not DC drama.
Like it or not, that's where the market is until D.C. drama suggests President Trump is nearing a Nixon moment or the blow-back from Cohen/Manaofrt will lead to a Democratic onslaught in November. Check out TheStreet's 'Trader Chat' that we held Tuesday evening discussing the market impact from the Cohen/Manafort decisions.
The Data Dump
More meat for the bulls to chew on to feel emotionally satisfied. The Dow Transports are hovering around a record after tacking on 6 percent over the past month. "This is quite positive because the airlines HAD been lagging BADLY from March until June -- in fact, the XAL fell into correction territory at its late June lows," points out Miller Tabak strategist Matt Maley on the move in the Transports. "However, it has rallied nicely since then (almost 10%) and looks like its ready to break-out even more." For watchers of the Dow Theory, the action in the transports is a bullish indicator for the broader market.
Dow Theory states that major trends in the market must be confirmed by the transport and industrial averages. These are the sectors at the ground level of global economic demand, after all.
A record-setting day on Wall Street today, how can I NOT talk to investing legend Byron Wien over at Blackstone? Wien, 86, has seen pretty much everything in the financial services industry over the course of his decorated career. I always enjoy talking to him; he offers insights that you simply cannot find anywhere else (benefits of experience, so listen up millennial readers of Morning Jolt). Wien tells me the bull market is in the fifth inning. He sees the S&P 500 I:GSPC ending the year at 3,000, supported by strong corporate profits. No recession until 2021, Wien thinks. Wien adds that the next leg of the bull market will be powered by industrial companies as participation broadens beyond FANG stocks (Facebook (FB) - Get Report , Apple (AAPL) - Get Report , Netflix (NFLX) - Get Report and Alphabet (GOOGL) - Get Report ).
Stay tuned to TheStreet this morning, we have scores of pieces looking at the bull market record and what could happen next. Where was I on day one of this latest bull market? Well, not thinking a bull market was about to emerge and wondering if my analyst job would be secure the next day. Scary times, but very lucky to have lived through them and gained that experience.
TheStreet's @KatherineRoss talks with well-known Yale professor and housing expert Robert Shiller, someone who of course made his name at the height of the Great Recession by predicting the downturn. Shiller thinks the Fed is a "stabilizing force" at the moment and not as hawkish as Trump has hinted. Time will tell on that one.
And yes, today is the day when TheStreet's founder @JimCramer and veteran market forecaster Marc Chaikin will have a live webinar titled: "How to Trade a Booming Economy." I can't tell you how many people are already signed up for this thing, but it's a digital mob-show ready to listen in let's just say. Quick register here.