United Continental (UAL) - Get Report has been the top performer in the Dow Jones Transportation Index over the last month. The major airline is up over 25% from its November low and is up nearly 90% from the Brexit bottom.
This powerful rally leg has driven shares well into overbought territory. United is set up well for more upside, but a healthy pullback and consolidation may be needed first.
During the initial leg of the post-election rally, United stock returned to a very heavy resistance zone near the $62 area. This key zone had capped multiple monthly highs in late 2015 as well as the initial 2016 high back in March. The stock stalled very briefly here before a powerful Warren Buffett-inspired ramp drove shares 5% higher. United then blew through the old highs with ease as a new rally phase began.
The stock steadily gained ground until late last week, when momentum began to show signs of easing. With United now at overbought levels not seen in over two years, a pullback may soon follow.
In the near term, further upside is very possible but will likely be limited. Patient bulls may benefit from a more neutral stance until a healthy pullback develops. United now has a major support zone in place between $63 and $61. This key zone includes the Buffett breakout gap near the upper band and the March peak near the lower band. Also in this area are four monthly highs from the second half of 2015.
A fade back down to this area would provide patient investors with an extremely low-risk entry opportunity.
This article is commentary by an independent contributor. At the time of publication, the author held no position in the stocks mentioned.