Forget about Snap Inc. (SNAP) and Facebook Inc. (FB) if you're looking at social media stocks to play right now from the long side. The former is a disaster with shares of Snap off by 37% so far in 2017, and the latter is overextended with shares of Facebook printing a new 52-week high on Wednesday of $159.16 a share.
If you're looking for an opportunistic chart setup in the social media space, then you need to have shares of Twitter Inc. (TWTR) on your radar right here. Besides the chart setup which I'm going to get into shortly, Twitter is actually the cheapest among the three from a market capitalization perspective at $13.9 billion. Compare that to Snap's market cap of $17.9 billion and Facebook's massive market cap of $460.5 billion.
This dismal valuation in the social media space for Twitter could be about to change dramatically, since the stock is rapidly approaching a key inflection point that will make or break the next big move for the shares.
First, let's take a look at how Twitter has been trading leading up to this inflection point. Back in April, shares of Twitter rallied hard, with the stock moving sharply higher off its 52-week low of $14.12 a share, to its recent high of $19.78 a share. That rally created a strong uptrend, with the stock consistently making higher lows and higher highs, which is bullish technical price action.
After tagging that $19.78 high, shares of Twitter quickly dropped to a June low of $16.27, before entering another uptrend over the past few weeks. This second uptrend has pushed this stock from $16.27 to its intraday high on Wednesday of $19.54 a share.
What's key to realize here, is that shares of Twitter are still showing a strong uptrend since that new 52-week low print of $14.12 a share back in April. This demonstrates that the stock is still in control of the bulls, and it very well might be getting ready for not just another leg higher, but a monster breakout above a significant inflection point.
Shares of Twitter spiked sharply higher on Wednesday to an intraday high of $19.54 a share with strong upside volume flows. Volume for the session registered over 29 million shares, which is well above its three-month average action of 18.73 million shares. This high-volume spike is quickly pushing this stock within range of triggering a major breakout trade above a key inflection point on the chart that dates back to October 2016. This key inflection point has acted as major resistance for almost an entire year.
Traders should look for long-biased trades in this stock if it manages to break out above a key downtrend line that will trigger above some major overhead resistance levels at $19.60 to $19.78, and then above its gap-down-day high from last October at around $21 a share with high volume. Look for volume that hits near or above its three-month average action of 18.73 million shares. If that breakout develops soon, then it will mark the first time that shares of Twitter have traded above $20 a share since last October.
What market players should look for is a close above that key downtrend line with strong volume, and especially a move or close above $21 a share. A move above $21 will then give this stock a chance to refill some of its previous gap-down-day zone from last October that started near $25 a share. Traders can look to buy Twitter off any weakness back toward the uptrend line around at $18 to $17.50 a share, and then play the breakout either way if it happens without a pullback, or with one. Any move or close above $21 will give this stock a chance to refill that gap back toward $25 a share in the very near future.
Twitter's shares rose 0.3% to $19.30 early Thursday afternoon.
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This article is commentary by an independent contributor. At the time of publication, the author held no positions in the stocks mentioned.