Shares were down 1.8% in midday trading Friday, bringing its total decline from the July highs to 25.1%. However, the stock closed lower by just 77 basis points, at $114.22. Still of more than 20% off its highs though, Twilio stock is officially in a bear market.
However, for those that look at Shopify (SHOP) - Get Report , Alteryx (AYX) - Get Report , Roku (ROKU) - Get Report , The Trade Desk (TTD) - Get Report and other high-growth tech stocks, the fact that Twilio is in a bear market should come as little surprise.
The question is whether it's a good time to buy Twilio stock. The tough but honest answer is that nobody really knows. When growth stocks stop trending higher and support levels continually fail, there's no way to know ahead of time when support will suddenly kick in or when investors will suddenly want to bid shares higher instead of sell them lower.
That's why with these types of names, we have to go level by level, day by day and week by week. Let's look at the chart for Twilio and see what some of those levels are.
Trading Twilio Stock
After putting in a low near $107 earlier this month, shares of Twilio have been on the mend. However, the stock is declining as it approaches the 20-day moving average.
If Twilio stock is able to reclaim its 20-day moving average, it makes the 200-day moving average as the next upside target. Should it fail to reclaim the 20-day, it puts the September lows at $107 on the table. The low also comes into play near the 50% retracement.
Should the lows break, it immediately puts the 61.8% retracement near $96 on watch. It's not hard to see how $98 to $100 went from resistance in Q4, to support in early 2019.
Will these areas mark the lows? There's no way to say with certainty. As I said before, we have to go level by level. Start with the September lows and the 20-day moving average. Above the 20-day and we'll need to see how TWLO stock handles the 200-day. At $107 and we'll need to see if it acts as support. If not, a fall to the 61.8% retracement is on the table, and investors will need to see if it then acts as support.
From a gut feeling, it does not feel like Twilio and its high-growth peers are done declining. But levels are always superior to gut checks.
This article is commentary by an independent contributor. At the time of publication, the author had no positions in the stocks mentioned.