I'm fired up.
The market is tanking as Donald Trump escalates his trade war with China. Bye-bye foolish market rally of the past few days, which TheStreet had warned you about across our publications. TheStreet's founder Jim Cramer will hold his latest must-listen call with Action Alerts PLUS members Wednesday, July 11 (quickly register here). And TheStreet's Katherine Ross will be live on the ground in Brooklyn at 4 p.m. ET with new New York Federal Reserve President John Williams, who will be making his first speech since taking on the role. Williams then plans to go on a roadshow so expect more potentially market-moving news from him in coming days.
All in all, grab that Red Bull, turn on your 15 trading screens and get to work -- it's going to be that type of day.
The bottom line: The market is one giant computer program that is programmed to trade on headlines. When the headlines read "escalating" trade war or "new $200 billion in tariffs" stocks are programmed to be dumped. Second-quarter earnings season is back to being ignored following Trump's latest tariff actions until another piece of positive news emerges (last week it was the June jobs report) for computers to pick up on.
Not helping the mindset of those computer programs is early commentary from companies on global trade conditions. For instance, this is what PepsiCo (PEP) Chief Financial Officer Hugh Johnston told me on the topic post-earnings Tuesday: "I think there has always been volatility in the world, and certainly we have some examples of it today whether it's the Brazil trucker strike for a few days, whether it's the current trade dialogue going on, whether it's currencies. I don't know if I would necessarily characterize it as any harder than in the past, but there are challenges we have to face."
Call of the Day
Look for recession talk to intensify this week as the trade war returns back to the forefront.
Some great points from Yardeni Research's Ed Yardeni:
"The yield curve is commonly measured as the spread between the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond yield and the federal funds rate. This spread has narrowed significantly since the start of this year, raising fears of an imminent recession and bear market in stocks. That's because in the past, the yield curve spread has flattened (i.e., narrowed) and then inverted (i.e., the bond yield was below the federal funds rate) immediately preceding the past seven recessions. Recessions cause bear markets in stocks, which is why the yield curve has received lots of buzz in recent weeks. Do a Google Trends search on 'yield curve' for the past five years, and you'll see a trendless series through the end of last year, followed by an upward-trending series so far this year with a spike in June."
Watch more on the yield curve from TheStreet's Tracy Byrnes.
It is weird that stock prices have pretty much done nothing for about a year, no? The market has to be pricing in a sharp slowdown in growth in 2019 -- unfortunately investors aren't getting it yet.
Around the Horn
Fashion designer Joseph Abboud will be stopping by TheStreet's HQ on Wednesday. Abboud is now the chief creative officer at Men's Wearhouse. This interview comes at a perfect time -- Abboud has long championed manufacturing in America. With the trade war in full effect, it will be interesting to see if major clothing houses move production back from China to the U.S. Nike (NKE) , Under Armour (UAA) and Adidas (ADDYY) have dabbled in this of late, but it has been nothing more than a marketing ploy rather than truly game-changing.
Hey, with retail profit margins under pressure sourcing from China still makes sense (as it always has). But for how long under the new Trump dynamic is the question. Retailers have to plant their flag back again in the United States.